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  • 18
    Mar
    2013
    11:33am, EDT

    10,000 could die in Northwest quake, chilling report says

    NOAA

    Oregon's idyllic coastline, a region that may be due for a powerful earthquake that could do plenty of damage.

    By Lauren Gambino, The Associated Press

    SALEM, Ore. — More than 10,000 people could die when — not if — a monster earthquake and tsunami occur just off the Pacific Northwest coast, researchers told Oregon legislators Thursday.

    Coastal towns would be inundated. Schools, buildings and bridges would collapse, and economic damage could hit $32 billion.

    These findings were published in a chilling new report by the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission, a group of more than 150 volunteer experts.

    In 2011, the Legislature authorized the study of what would happen if a quake and tsunami such as the one that devastated Japan hit the Pacific Northwest.

    The Cascadia Subduction Zone, just off the regional coastline, produced a mega-quake in the year 1700. Seismic experts say another monster quake and tsunami are overdue.

    "This earthquake will hit us again," Kent Yu, an engineer and chairman of the commission, told lawmakers. "It's just a matter of how soon."

    When it hits, the report says, there will be devastation and death from Northern California to British Columbia.

    Many Oregon communities will be left without water, power, heat and telephone service. Gasoline supplies will be disrupted.

    The 2011 Japan quake and tsunami were a wakeup call for the Pacific Northwest. Governments have been taking a closer look at whether the region is prepared for something similar and discovering it is not.

    Oregon legislators requested the study so they could better inform themselves about what needs to be done to prepare and recover from such a giant natural disaster.

    The report says that geologically, Oregon and Japan are mirror images. Despite the devastation in Japan, that country was more prepared than Oregon because it had spent billions on technology to reduce the damage, the report says.

    Jay Wilson, the commission's vice chairman, visited Japan and said he was profoundly affected as he walked through villages ravaged by the tsunami.

    "It was just as if these communities were ghost towns, and for the most part there was nothing left," said Wilson, who works for the Clackamas County emergency management department.

    Wilson told legislators that there was a similar event 313 years ago in the Pacific Northwest, and "we're well within the window for it to happen again."

    Experts representing a variety of state agencies, industries and organizations expanded on the report's findings and shared with lawmakers how they have begun planning.

    Sue Graves, a safety coordinator for the Lincoln County School District, told lawmakers that high school students in her district take semester-long classes that teach CPR and other survival techniques in preparation for a giant earthquake. The class teaches students to "duck, cover and hold" when the ground starts shaking.

    Maree Wacker, chief executive officer of the American Red Cross of Oregon, said it is important for residents to have their own contingency plans for natural disasters.

    "Oregonians as individuals are underprepared," she said.

    40 comments

    Simple solution. Tell people that insist on living along the coast that they are on their own. No one made them live there. It isn't up to the rest of us (government using our tax money) to take care of you when you know you chose a dangerous area. Buy insurance.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: earthquake, tsunami, warning, preparation, pacific-northwest, featured
  • 15
    Feb
    2013
    6:21pm, EST

    Meteor warning system in the works — but not ready yet

    Yekaterina Pustynnikova / AP

    In this photo provided by Chelyabinsk.ru, a meteor contrail is seen over Chelyabinsk on Friday, Feb. 15, 2013.

    By Suzanne Choney

    There aren't yet any advance warning systems that could give Earthlings a heads-up before an untracked space rock hits. But a telescope project in Hawaii aims to change that, and potentially provide a chance for those in threatened areas to evacuate. A meteor alert might have made a difference to Russia's Chelyabinsk region on Friday.

    Read: Nuclear-like in its intensity, Russia meteor blast is largest since 1908

    "There are excellent ongoing surveys for asteroids that are capable of seeing such a rock with one to two days' warning, but they do not cover the whole sky each night, so there's a good chance that any given rock can slip by them for days to weeks. This one obviously did," astronomer John Tonry of the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii told NBC News Friday.

    Tonry is one of the key players in a NASA-backed effort to build ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System), two observatories in Hawaii that can simultaneously scan the entire visible sky twice a night.

    "If ATLAS were up and running we might very well have seen" the meteor that hit Russia, he said, and "could have provided one to two days' warning."

    However, he adds, the success of detection "depends on a couple of assumptions." One is that it's not cloudy. Another is that the asteroid doesn't go over the South Pole, "where ATLAS cannot see."

    Telescopes, Tony said, "can only see the sky above the horizon, obviously. A telescope that's sited in the northern hemisphere (which ATLAS will be) cannot see all the way to the South Pole of the sky." And, "if the asteroid were coming from that direction, there's a good chance that it would never rise above the horizon for a northern telescope before it hits."

    While it would "easy to build multiple copies of ATLAS and put some in the south, and spread them out so they see different weather patterns ... that's for the future," he said.

    Dozens were hospitalized and nearly 1,000 residents suffered minor injuries from fallen debris and the impact of the meteor's powerful landing. NBC's Tom Costello reports.

    The ATLAS telescopes are "just now" being built, Tonry said; ATLAS should "start running around the end of 2014 and be fully operational by the end of 2015." NASA has provided $5 million in funding for ATLAS.

    At one time, NASA considered launching an asteroid-hunting probe, but that didn't go forward because of the cost, estimated at $500 million almost a decade ago.

    Other private efforts are in the works, too.

    Last year, leaders of the nonprofit B612 Foundation, including Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, started a campaign to fund and launch a space telescope that will hunt for potential killer asteroids over the course of five and a half years.

    Another venture, from a group called Planetary Resources, ultimately wants to do asteroid mining, but says its first step is to "launch an orbital fleet of 'personal space telescopes' capable of looking out into the heavens or back down on Earth," wrote Alan Boyle, NBC News.com's Science editor last year.

    More about cosmic hits (and near misses):

    • Streaking meteor explodes in Russian sky, injuring nearly 1,000
    • Asteroid's close shave ranks among Earth's biggest hits (and misses)
    • Meteorite from California fireball reveals its secrets

    Suzanne Choney is a contributing writer for NBC News.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

    NASA looks at the flyby of asteroid 2012 DA14 from several amateur observatories across Australia.

     

    180 comments

    Hmmm... Five hundred million dollars to help ensure the survival of our species is too much, yet we run up a sixteen TRILLION dollar deficit to pay for our welfare state. I guess asteroids don't matter as long as everyone gets their food stamps.

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    Explore related topics: russia, space, warning, asteroid, featured

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