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  • 7
    May
    2013
    12:01pm, EDT

    Increase in Hawaii cyclone rates predicted

    NASA

    Hurricane Flossie approaching the Hawaiian Islands in 2007.

    By Becky Oskin
    LiveScience

    Scientists have suggested climate change may mean fewer tropical cyclones in coming years, but a closer look at how global warming affects regional weather patterns reveals Hawaiians should expect more hurricane-force gales.

    Tropical cyclones include hurricanes and typhoons, storms that form in the world's tropical latitudes and spin ferociously around a center called an eye. Only eight named tropical cyclones hit Hawaii between 1979 and 2010, said scientists at the University of Hawaii's International Pacific Research Center. But the researchers' new model predicts a two-to-three-fold increase in such storms between 2075 and 2099. The study is detailed in Sunday's issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.

    The results illustrate how global warming can lead to strong regional climate differences, the researchers said. "Computer models run with global warming scenarios generally project a decrease in tropical cyclones worldwide. This, though, may not be what will happen with local communities," lead study author Hiroyuki Murakami said in a statement.  

    Hiroyuki Murakami, Nature Climate Change

    The projected change in the number of tropical cyclones per year in Hawaii by 2075, according to a study in the journal Nature Climate Change.

    In the Pacific Ocean, tropical cyclones that could threaten Hawaii typically arise off the west coast of Mexico from June through November. But lack of moisture over the Pacific and strong westerly winds usually stop the storms from reaching the islands.

    But the new model predicts that these westerly winds — called a subtropical jet and similar to the polar jet stream — will shift northward in the next 60 years, removing the roadblock. The projections also suggest the eastern Pacific Ocean will warm, giving storms more fuel in the form of rising moisture.

    "The yearly number we project, however, still remains very low," study co-author Bin Wang said in a statement. Between 1979 and 2003, on average, one tropical cyclone pummeled the islands every four years. The researchers expect that number will double or triple.

    The storm projections are based on a global climate model that includes the history of North Pacific tropical cyclones and a temperature rise of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius).

    Email Becky Oskin or follow her @beckyoskin. Follow us @OAPlanet, Facebook and Google+. Original article on LiveScience's OurAmazingPlanet.

    • A History of Destruction: 8 Great Hurricanes
    • Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form
    • Hurricanes from Above: See Nature's Biggest Storms

    Copyright 2013 LiveScience, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    6 comments

    A hurricane requires a remarkable convergence of conditions to develope; warm surface waters a general circulation pattern that causes the center to move, but without the high altitude winds that cause shear. It seems reasonable to me to think that by putting more energy into the atmosphere, warming …

    Show more
    Explore related topics: hurricanes, hawaii, featured, cyclones, tropical-storms
  • 8
    Jan
    2013
    1:11pm, EST

    NOAA: 2012 was warmest year ever for US, second most 'extreme'

    Last year was one for the history books, as a long-term warming trend brought two record highs for each record low between 2000 and 2010. And even more concerning, in the past year there were five record highs for each low recorded. NBC's Anne Thompson reports.

    By Elizabeth Chuck, Staff Writer, NBC News

    If you found yourself bundling up in scarves, hats, and long underwear less than usual last year, you weren't alone: 2012 was the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States, according to scientists with The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


    Follow @NBCNewsUS

    The average temperature for 2012 was 55.3 degrees Fahrenheit, 3.2 degrees above normal and a full degree higher than the previous warmest year recorded -- 1998 -- NOAA said in its report Tuesday. All 48 states in the contiguous U.S. had above-average annual temperatures last year, including 19 that broke annual records, from Connecticut through Utah.

    “We’re taking quite a large step,” said Jake Crouch, a climate scientist from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, which has recorded temperatures in the contiguous U.S. for the past 118 years.

    It was also a historic year for "extreme" weather, scientists with the federal agency said. With 11 disasters that surpassed $1 billion in losses, including Superstorm Sandy, Hurricane Isaac, and tornadoes across the Great Plains, Texas, and the Southeast and Ohio Valley, NOAA said 2012 was second only to 1998 in the agency's "extreme" weather index.

    A long-term warming trend for the U.S., combined with drought and a northerly jet stream, led to the record heat, explained Crouch. 

    "During the winter season, the jet stream tended to stay further north of the U.S.-Canadian border, so that limited colder outbreaks in the country. It also limited precipitation. So that led to a warm and dry winter season, and that persisted through the spring," he said. 

    Matt Rourke / AP file

    People play in water from an open fire hydrant during the afternoon heat on July 18, 2012, in Philadelphia. July was the hottest month ever on record in the contiguous U.S.

    "That warm and dry spring and winter laid the groundwork for the drought we had this summer... . When we have drought, it tends to drive daytime temperatures upward."

    The unprecedented warm weather wasn't contained to the United States.

    A corresponding rise in global temperatures prompted the World Meteorological Organization to call the rate at which the Arctic sea ice was melting "alarming" in its Nov. 28, 2012, report.

    “The extent of Arctic sea ice reached a new record low. The alarming rate of its melt this year highlighted the far-reaching changes taking place on Earth’s oceans and biosphere. Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said.

    Each year since 2001 has been among the warmest on record worldwide, with 2012 likely to "be no exception despite the cooling influence of La Niña early in the year," the report added.

    'Horrible' sea level rise of more than 3 feet plausible by 2100, experts say 

    Watch NBC's special coverage of the 2012 drought 

    'Wake-up call': Chicago set to break 73-year-old snowless record

    NOAA expects to have global data for 2012 sometime in the coming weeks, but Crouch said scientists already know with certainty "it's going to be in the top ten" warmest years ever.

    Adding to the extremes: 2012 was the driest year on record for the U.S., with 26.57 inches of average precipitation -- 2.57 inches below average. Those dry conditions created an ideal environment for wildfires in the West, which charred 9.2 million acres -- the third highest amount ever recorded, NOAA said Tuesday.

    Other notable climate activity from 2012:

    • Snowpack totals across the Central and Southern Rockies were less than half normal.
    • July was the hottest month ever on record in the contiguous U.S.
    • Tornado activity was concentrated toward the beginning of the season, with large outbreaks in March and April in the Ohio Valley and Central Plains, but the final 2012 tornado count will likely be less than 1,000 -- the least since 2002. "The factors behind that are kind of related to what was going on with the drought. We didn't have these large storm systems moving through the country, so that limited precipitation, and that also limited severe weather outbreaks," Crouch said. What made this year so high on the extreme weather index were cyclones, hurricanes, and the heat, he said.
    • Alaska was cooler and slightly wetter than average, and had a record-cold January. "Their January temperatures were 14 degrees below average. Many locations in Alaska had temperatures 30 degrees below zero," Crouch said, adding that Anchorage, Alaska, set a new snow record.
    • Hawaii experienced growing drought conditions, with 47.4 percent of the state experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought at the beginning of 2012 and 63.3 percent at the end of the year. Alaska and Hawaii were not included in the bulk of NOAA's 2012 report because of terrain issues, and because scientists don't have records dating back as far as states in the contiguous U.S.

    While NOAA made no meteorological forecasts for 2013, Crouch said the drought was going to continue to be an issue.

    "The drought got a lot of attention this summer when it was having impacts on agriculture. More than 60 percent of the country is still in drought," he said. "And if things don't change, the drought is going to continue to be a big story in 2013."

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    1050 comments

    Stages of climate change denial: It's not happening. It's happening, but it's not us. It's happening, it's us, but it won't be bad. It's happening, it's us, it will be bad, but there's nothing we can do about it. Maybe there was something we could have done about it, but it's too late now.

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    Explore related topics: hurricanes, weather, drought, 2012, climate-change, tornadoes, extreme-weather, noaa

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