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NOAA
Oregon's idyllic coastline, a region that may be due for a powerful earthquake that could do plenty of damage.
By Lauren Gambino, The Associated Press
SALEM, Ore. — More than 10,000 people could die when — not if — a monster earthquake and tsunami occur just off the Pacific Northwest coast, researchers told Oregon legislators Thursday.
Coastal towns would be inundated. Schools, buildings and bridges would collapse, and economic damage could hit $32 billion.
These findings were published in a chilling new report by the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission, a group of more than 150 volunteer experts.
In 2011, the Legislature authorized the study of what would happen if a quake and tsunami such as the one that devastated Japan hit the Pacific Northwest.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone, just off the regional coastline, produced a mega-quake in the year 1700. Seismic experts say another monster quake and tsunami are overdue.
"This earthquake will hit us again," Kent Yu, an engineer and chairman of the commission, told lawmakers. "It's just a matter of how soon."
When it hits, the report says, there will be devastation and death from Northern California to British Columbia.
Many Oregon communities will be left without water, power, heat and telephone service. Gasoline supplies will be disrupted.
The 2011 Japan quake and tsunami were a wakeup call for the Pacific Northwest. Governments have been taking a closer look at whether the region is prepared for something similar and discovering it is not.
Oregon legislators requested the study so they could better inform themselves about what needs to be done to prepare and recover from such a giant natural disaster.
The report says that geologically, Oregon and Japan are mirror images. Despite the devastation in Japan, that country was more prepared than Oregon because it had spent billions on technology to reduce the damage, the report says.
Jay Wilson, the commission's vice chairman, visited Japan and said he was profoundly affected as he walked through villages ravaged by the tsunami.
"It was just as if these communities were ghost towns, and for the most part there was nothing left," said Wilson, who works for the Clackamas County emergency management department.
Wilson told legislators that there was a similar event 313 years ago in the Pacific Northwest, and "we're well within the window for it to happen again."
Experts representing a variety of state agencies, industries and organizations expanded on the report's findings and shared with lawmakers how they have begun planning.
Sue Graves, a safety coordinator for the Lincoln County School District, told lawmakers that high school students in her district take semester-long classes that teach CPR and other survival techniques in preparation for a giant earthquake. The class teaches students to "duck, cover and hold" when the ground starts shaking.
Maree Wacker, chief executive officer of the American Red Cross of Oregon, said it is important for residents to have their own contingency plans for natural disasters.
"Oregonians as individuals are underprepared," she said.
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The faults are only about 20 miles off the coast, that means a tsunami would hit in less then a half hour after the quake. Get on your Nikes.
The tsunami would more likely hit in CA, or WA.
I am confused.........DHS says that those whom are "prepared" are potential terrorists (report them!)....and......scientists/ecologists spout that we have too many people on Mother Earth (billions need to be removed).
It's interesting how denial reigns supreme until something like this actually happens.
I learned of this potential catastrophe in a geology class in college in the late 1980s. Yes, many smaller coastal communities will be wiped out or isolated by broken bridges, but even more daunting will be the bigger cities of Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, where many buildings and bridges built to older codes will tumble, probably killing thousands. It will not be pretty.
The energy from a tsunami travels at over 600MPH. If the epicenter were at 20 miles off shore the mega-tsunami would arrive in about 3 minutes. That's not nearly enough time to get out of the way after having just lived through the massive shock of a 8.0 to 9.0 magnitude quake which is very likely in that region. I used to live there and experienced a few quakes in the 4.0 level. I can't imagine what an 8.0 to a 9.0 will be like but I guarantee this much, 3 minutes is not nearly enough time to make a run for it while trying to climb out from under or get away from all the destruction caused by the quake alone much less what will happen once the tsunami hits.
Stupid question wonder what the effects would have on Phoenix, AZ
Is there a major fault line near Phoenix?? I think not,
well wonderful ... after living through the quake in 2001 I know that Seattle and the area around is not prepared
I was just a kid back then and now I know better
I had to giggle. I can remember when I, too, was a kid the earthquakes we had in Seattle. One was strong enough to knock things off the cupboards. It even scared me, and kids aren't scared of anything, for the most part. I'm now 73. So, the earthquakes in Seattle have been ongoing for some time.
It was stated pretty clear - WHEN, not if this happens. If I lived near there I think I would be making plans to exit. I know, weather issues can happen anywhere, but some are less deadly.
I'm a little surprised at the closing statement by Maree Wacker.
When I visited some friends along the Oregon coastline last year I was impressed by exactly how well the people were prepared and aware of the dangers. I found the vast majority knew the evacuation routes. The vast majority were well aware of the potential impact. The vast majority had a gameplan. By comparison to the cluster$%#@ every time there's a hurricane and evacuation in my home state, they were miles ahead.
Amen.
So you visited some friends in Oregon and you now know that the "vast majority" of Oregonians - citizens and governments - are fully prepared? That's some amazing precognition you have there.
chitownandy, considering I met these people at a gathering of several hundred people where it was a major topic of conversation and considering the fact I referred to people I had met, yes. You know you can visit friends and meet more than 2-3 people, right? Not everyone only has conversations with 500 make-believe FB friends.
By the same token, I guarantee I can talk to a similar number of people here in La or for that matter even around Galveston, TX (anybody remember the mess when they tried to get out of Ike's way) where preparing for an evacuation should be a matter of second nature as chances are it's an annual alert/event instead of something that will happen but maybe not in their lifetime, and chances are these people (a) have no clue what the actual evacuation routes are this year (b) don't have batteries and supplies ready every year at the outset of hurricane season (c) don't have a real gameplan of where they'll go if they are required to evacuate.
No doubt however you were one of the Chi-town people who got taken by surprise this year when it snowed in the winter...
Compared to a huricane, a quake happens instantaneously, a tropical storm takes days to get to the points of maximum distruction. The violence of a 9.0 quake is quite different.
...which is located at the dead center of town?
Sounds like justification for mandating FEMA provided earthquake insurance and increasing the number of coastal properties that must pay flood insurance.
More rules and regulations, that'll help.
Everywhere along the Oregon coast, there are warning signs as well as evacuation signs. They are very well prepared. Must be a slow news day.
Having experience several large earthquakes in both California and Seattle and now living in Oregon. I can tell you I am better prepared than most I think. We have an emergency kit with all the provisions needed for immediate survival. I will admit though that anything longer than 6 days will be a task we are not prepared for. I just don't have the room or money to stockpile gear for more than a week.
Smart remarks and political theories about such probabilities are just demonstrations of ignorance of the topic. For real info read Cascadia's Fault by Jerry Thompson. It's a good starting point if the topic interests you.
Look closely at the picture.
How far are you from the lighthouse and the entrance
to the hiding place of One Eyed Willie?
Simple solution.
Tell people that insist on living along the coast that they are on their own. No one made them live there. It isn't up to the rest of us (government using our tax money) to take care of you when you know you chose a dangerous area.
Buy insurance.
Tornadoes, hurricanes, snow storms, and the list goes on. We as a people decided to come together to help each other out economically as a nation. I live near Seattle and have earthquake insurance as most do. However, roads, bridges, transport of food and goods must continue after a major event, and like our taxes helped after Katrina, and tornadoes and Mississippi river flooding and thousands of other major events, we the people will continue to help each other out.
That is until people like you reign, and then we will become a tribal nation, with wars between cities and wars between regions. If you want to live in a tribal area where nation doesn't mean much, move to those parts of Africa and the Middle East where your kind of thinking prevails.
It's always cheaper to clean up after it happens, why would we waste the money to prepare? Stupid humans!
I would like to move out to the pacific northwest coast, but I'm waiting till after this event. I'm betting on cheaper real estate along the coast.
I hope it comes soon...........
Freedom-supporter, I hope you're just trying to be cute. Not. Funny.
Love him or hate him, but President Obama is correct on one thing - we need to reinvest money into our country. We need revisions to building codes, whether due to earthquake damages or hurricane/flood restrictions or building a smarter home or building to withstand the force of a tornado (desperately needed in Tornado Alley). Our earthquake tracking systems are old; our weather tracking systems are becoming the laughingstock of other places like Europe, countries who see the logic of seeking out and obtaining newer, advanced technologies.
We must invest in our infrastructure! Put people to work on these projects and things like improving roads and safety routes. Our economy will improve, rather than watch billions of dollars go up in smoke. Our complacency toward our country needs to end. Waiting until a disaster strikes is not the answer, and "I-told-you-so" is little comfort to someone.
Cathy yes, all those infrastructure "shovel ready" jobs Obozo talked about under the FIRST stimulus program. Then the 2nd...AND the 3rd.
Seeing much rebuilding going on in your area? I'm not.
This President has NOT invested in infrastructure! A two year transportation bill is inadequate, short sighted. The fact we went without a transportation bill over most of Obama's administration should be some indication of his understanding and concern regsarding infrastructure maintenance, much less improvement. Study the history of this adminbistration on this subject.
The Puget Sound area and Seattle suffered damage from a moderate earthquake about ten or twelve years back. The damage wasn't terrible but a main arterial, the two-level viaduct, was damaged and it was surmised that a more severe earthquake would cause the structure to pancake to the ground crushing many cars during their commute. Some stopgap measures were put in place to strengthen the viaduct but the measures might be little more than bandaids should the big one hit, something now overdue. Furthermore, many other structures will turn to rubble from the overdue quake which experts predict could top 8 on the Richter scale
What is interesting and sad is during the last ten years, politicians did little but argue about how to replace the failing, but well-used viaduct. But as politicans dithered about mundane things like roadways, Seattle built not one, but two state-of-the-art venues for their pro baseball and football teams. And in a small bit of irony, the new stadiums are not much more than a stone's throw away from the ugly and unsound viaduct. Now, even though I'm a sports fans and route for the Mariners and Seahawks, I worry history will be a harsh judge should the expected monstrous quake hit while the still-in-use viaduct collapses causing large loss of life, and this while the sparkling new stadiums weather the storm. There are now plans for a viaduct replacement that has been begrudgingly accepted by former opponents. I hope until then the big one stays away. Unfortunately, nature often has no regard for the welfare of man.
A belief in hell and the knowledge that every ambition is doomed to frustration at the hands of a skeleton have never prevented the majority of human beings from behaving as though death were no more than an unfounded rumor.
Adolphus Huxley
Having survived a major quake in Mexico City, I can tell you for a fact that "duck, cover and hold" doesn't hack it. That is a total joke.
10000 could be killed if an earth quake hit off Oregon.I think 10000 could be killed if a major quake hit any number of places.denver,ny,san fransico just to name a few.
I live on the South Oregon Coast in a small fishing/tourist town called Bandon. We definitely would have problems here with tsunamis. I live up a long hill from the beaches, but the tourists are in Old Town which would be struck hard by a tsunami, as would anyone on the beaches. If it is a really huge tsunami, I probably would get inundated. I live in my RV in an RV park. Our motto: Grab a six pack and get on top of your RV and enjoy the show." If a tsunami gets this high it is over for me. And there is no where "higher" to go to. You don't want to get onto the north/south Hwy 101 nor do you want to go inland since we have the Coquille River flowing into the Pacific here, and at high tide it flows backwards at least 18 miles to the small town of Coquille. We have to stay away from creeks and rivers, any depression areas. In my RV I can store quite a bit of water, also I have propane for furnace and cooking and it would also heat the water heater and run the frig. All of this is now on elec power, but I can survive fairly well if the water doesn't rise to where I live. I would not be able to move my fifth wheel as it requires a pickup with a special attachment. Motorhomes could move but every place they can move to is lower than where I am now.
Relatively few people, fortunately, would be affected by a tsunami in the Northwest. Portland, Seattle and Vancouver are far from the open ocean and there's no major cities on the Coast. Even the communities on the Coast, for the most part, have well developed evacuation plans.
The earthquake, sadly, will be devastating. Millions of people live on sediment that will liquify during major shaking. Here in the Portland area, the entire west side of the metro area is built on land that was once swampy; not to mention, there's thousands of unreinforced masony structures, mostly apartments and schools, that will crumble when the big one hits.