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Chris Smith / NASA file
An artist's conception shows a comet streaking through Martian skies.
By Nancy Atkinson
Universe Today
There is an outside chance that a newly discovered comet might be on a collision course with Mars. Astronomers are still determining the trajectory of the comet, named C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), but at the very least, it is going to come fairly close to the Red Planet in October of 2014.
"Even if it doesn’t impact, it will look pretty good from Earth, and spectacular from Mars, probably a magnitude -4 comet as seen from Mars' surface," Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave wrote.
The comet was discovered in the beginning of 2013 by comet-hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia. According to a discussion on the IceInSpace amateur astronomy forum, when the discovery was initially made, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observations to find "pre-recovery" images of the comet dating back to Dec. 8, 2012. These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1 right through Mars orbit on Oct. 19, 2014.
However, after 74 days of observations, comet specialist Leonid Elenin notes that current calculations put the closest approach of the comet at a distance of 67,853 miles (109,200 kilometers), or 0.00073 AU from Mars in October 2014. That close pass has many wondering if any of the Mars orbiters might be able to acquire high-resolution images of the comet as it passes by.
But as Ian O’Neill from Discovery Space points out, since the comet has only been observed for 74 days (so far), so it’s difficult for astronomers to forecast precisely where the comet will be 20 months from now. "Comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles)," O'Neill wrote, "but to the other extreme, its orbital pass could put Mars directly in its path. At time of Mars close approach (or impact), the comet will be barreling along at a breakneck speed of 35 miles per second (126,000 miles per hour)."
Elenin said that since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 kilometers per second (126,000 mph). "With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 kilometers [30 miles], the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10^10 megatons!"
While the massive Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 (9.3 miles or 15 kilometers in diameter) that crashed into Jupiter in 1994 was spectacular as seen from Earth orbit by the Hubble Space Telescope, the sight of C/2013 A1 slamming into Mars would be off the charts.
Astronomers are certainly keeping an eye on this comet, and they will refine their measurements as more data comes in. You can see the orbital parameters available so far at JPL’s Solar System Dynamics website.
More about comets:
- Comet PanSTARRS warms up for the spotlight
- NASA probe tracks 'Comet of the Century'
- Comet spectaculars and other sky highlights for 2013
This report originally appeared on the Universe Today website as "Is a Comet on a Collision Course With Mars?" Copyright 2013 Universe Today. Reprinted with permission.
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Considering Mars is uninhabited and the event would be extremely rare--once in thousands of lifetimes, and it would show us the same thing could happen to us, I'm hoping they collide.
Life might exist on Mars. They are getting closer to determining it with the latest rover.
Wow. Wouldn't that be something to behold.
Seems to me that we have already found chunks of Mars on Earth. Not all the Martian rocks blasted away by an object of this size would stay on Mars. The local neighborhood could get really crowded if it hits.
Seriously crowded. The Comet C2013 A1 will have 1800 times the energy at impact as the dino killer and create a crater over 1000 miles wide and 20 to 30 miles deep. It will throw at least 1800 Teratons of martian material into space at greater than the Martian escape velocity so tens of thousands of Martian asteroids would hit Earth within 4 to 5 months as the Earth swings around. Much more will hit Venus and Mercury as they will be aligned to get hit with a more direct blast whereas Earth will catch the blast on the other side of the Sun and the asteroids will be traveling slower as a result of the Sun's gravitational pull. So at least that's a bright spot but not much!
There goes billions in equipment. Your tax dollars going up in smoke for real.
What a great piece. The odds are long on a collision between Mars and the comet I should think. Both have to be in a tiny window of space at a near "infinitesimally" small period of time (minutes) for it to happen, but as history shows...it certainly happens! I can't imagine how spectacular an impact that would be.
The dynamics of our universe are truly a wonder. Everything works to find a balance of forces and when found it'll stay that way for incomprehensible spans of time, until something changes. It's fascinating to think about bodies in the Asteroid Belt, the Oort Cloud or the Kuiper belt in their orbits, moving like traffic on the freeway..nice and uniform until the planets line up in a certain way, aligning their gravitational strength...or a a heavy concentration of far-away stars do the same and give some of those objects a small tug...decelerating them ever so slightly and sending them on their long journey. It's one of the few things we as humans can see as chaotic or random, but also orderly and predictable (if we have all the factors).
Are we getting better at spotting them or are there just more of them to spot? It could be a little of both. With Mars being one tenth the mass of earth and the thickness of its crust and gravity only 1/3 that of our planet, one thing is for sure and that is if a comet of this size and magnitude hits mars it will most assuredly throw planetary debris back into space. The only questions will be how much debris, how fast will it be traveling, and in what direction will it go. Pray this comet misses because if it hits it may be like braking the wrack on a pool table with chunks of mars heading in all directions. even if the original impact debris misses us it could wreak havoc as pieces fly through the asteroid belt and set of a whole new chain of events. This will be one to keep an eye on.
All of the inner planets would suffer seriously if Mars is impacted but it depends on the angle of the impact and which side of the planet is hit to know if it will impact Venus and Mercury more than Earth. A sun side impact would fling debris directly into the path of Venus and Mercury as they swing around the Sun on the Mars side of the Sun and it would only take 2 to 3 months. A back side impact (away from the Sun) would fling it more towards the Earth as the Earth approaches 5 to 6 months later on the other side of the Sun (further away, longer time to impact). A direct 90 degree hit would throw it in all directions and there is no way we could avoid some fallout. Probably millions of asteroids will be thrown out so we could get hit with thousands (a swarm). Which none would probably be bigger than 500 feet but with so many hitting it would overheat our atmosphere (and some would make it to the ground--those over 200 feet almost always would) and about the only safe place would be deep in caves.
I've been saving for a new 8-10" SC scope for a while now (the old newtonian 6 just isnt cutting it anymore), but this may be just the reason to purchase NOW.
Sweet!
I'd like to see what would happen if they could direct it into the sun. Then I could use my telescope, and have a reason to stare at the sun.
Guess i'll start building that runway with the gazebo and beer cooler at the end. No need to try and run, might as well get a lounge chair, some beers and throw some steaks on.
Here is some facts you might find interesting. Several years ago there was an article about the doom sayers and Myan calender and how the arm of the our galaxy that contains our solar system would be passing through an area of space called the shooting gallery. This was because it was thought to be an area of high meteor activity and would pose a greater threat to the planets in our system. From all of the recent activity I am beginning to wonder if this hypothesis is correct. The problem is if the article was right it won't matter how deep a hole you dig if anything of a large size and mass hits us.
One rotation of the galaxy equals 1 galactic year which is approximately 225 million years.
1 galactic year ago
Permian–Triassic extinction event
0.26 galactic year ago
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
That is two extinction level events in a 65,000,000 year period so that would be two areas of of high meteor activity we pass through in the beginning and end of that period of time.
Clarification-
From the data I looked at it appears that extinction level events coincide with regions of space that we pass through and are associated with where our arm of the galaxy is at a specific times in the galactic year. We are currently passing through the area of space that the Permian–Triassic extinction event that happened 1 galactic year ago (225,000,000 years). The Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event happened 65,000,000 years ago and we will not pass through that area of space again for another 166,500,000 years. A strike from a big asteroid more than 300 million years ago left a huge impact zone buried in Australia and changed the face of the Earth, researchers said on Friday. This asteroid hit would have occurred in the same area of space that the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event occurred.
Just as our own solar system has a static asteroid belt between mars and Jupiter and other belts have been seen by telescopes around near stars our solar system may well have belts associated with particular regions of space in our system. They may be associated with the gravitational pull between our galaxy and the Andromeda galaxy and these areas of space also coincide with where a debris field would be between our galaxy and the Andromeda galaxy. As our galaxies near one another this debris field would probably grow thicker. Our galaxies are projected to collide in 3.75 billion years.
Order of events would be Australian asteroid (300 million years ago.)
Permian–Triassic extinction event (1 galactic year which is approximately 225 million years.)
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event (65,000,000 years ago) approximately 1 galactic year from Austrailian asteroid event.
Current events - 1 galactic year from Permian–Triassic extinction event
That does it,,, it's over.
Well, since we're all gonna die, based on your analysis, you wouldn't mind signing over the deed to your house to me would you?
I will gladly take any worthless paper money or precious metals you won't need after the apocalypse.
Intergalactic billiards, "Earth ball in the corner pocket, off the Mars ball.
seems fitting that the comet expert's first name would be Leonid...someone's parents were thinking ahead of the game with that one :)
Hmmmm. 30 miles in diameter? WOW! BIG billiard ball indeed, and moving at what is apparently estimated to be over 125k mph closing-speed to Mars!
Put this into perspective: The object currently considered to have had a leading and key role in the extinction of dinosaurs about 65 million years back - "Chicxulub" - (the name of a village near the center of its scar in the Yucatan) was most likely somewhere around 6 or maybe 7 miles in diameter. It's impact may have been equivalent to a 100 million megaton explosion... (in engineering notation: 1 x 10^8 megatons).
C/2013 A1 is said to have the potential for a collision force equal to 2 x 10^10 megatons - 200 times greater impact force than Chicxulub - which left a 300 mile diameter crater scar!
On the side: Earth has a diameter of about 12760km and a mass of 5.972e24 kg. Mars is MUCH smaller -
6794km (about 1/2 of Earth's diameter), with a mass of 6.422e23 kg - about 1/9 that of Earth...
200 times larger smash, for 1/9th the mass... About the same thing as Earth having suffered a "Mega-Chicxulub" event perhaps 1800 times as huge! "Extinction - level event"? Yeah.
Would Mars actually really survive this? Is there some real chance planet Mars may break up???
I'm no planetary expert nor physicist, but sure seems like the ruddy little guy could reall get a black eye otta this! I want to be watching closely when this goes down!
The planet WILL NOT survive the impact. Mars will break apart to the point it will rain down billions of pieces of rock all over the earth. We are not that far that we won't feel the aftermath.
you're forgetting a couple of important things. One, what is the composition of the comet? If it's mostly ice and silicate rock, it will explode before ever crashing into the Martian surface. Secondly, what is the core of Mars made up of? Is it strong enough to survive a hit of t hat magnitude?? I doubt anyone can answer that.
eric-2645575
Mars has a much thinner atmosphere and the crust of Mars (average of 7 miles thick) is only 1/3 as thick as that of Earth (average about 20 miles thick). Even an air burst from a comet of this magnitude will breach Mars crust and throw debris into space and massive chunks will survive to impact the planets surface.
You're right, you're no planetary expert. It's considered unlikely, from what I understand, that the K-T event was a comet. It was likely an asteroid. Comets have vastly lower density relative to their radius than asteroids do. If an asteroid 30 miles across were crashing into Mars, I'd be scared to death. With a comet, I'd be scared to have it hitting us directly, but worst case scenario of it hitting Mars is a few extra meteor showers and all our lovely rovers and satellites destroyed.
Your wrong. According to Wikipedia it's even bigger:
These are fairly accurate numbers and derived from Wikipedia. So the Comet C2103 A1 is about 1800 times more energetic than the dino killer.
DUCK
If a comet this size his Mars the orbiters would all be buried in a layer of dust 2 feet thick and as dead as Mars. It also would likely puncture the crust and possibly ignite volcanic activity.
Cool,,, could rebuild it's atmosphere.
Mars has no magnetic field and the Sun blasts any atmosphere off quickly. Mars is 1% of Earths and never will be larger due to the absence of a magnetic field.
Hey NASA, can you update us on that defensive spacecraft plan again when you get a sec?
But surely if this comet hits Mars it will shower huge asteroidal chunks out of Mars orbit and they could very well be on a collision course with Earth. Congress & Science blew it because they didn't act on valid methods to protect the Earth.
I think it would release wonder woman if it penetrates the crust.
I'd love to see this happen, but i doubt it will....
You people are actually worried about comets hitting Earth? I'd worry more about your commute to work. IF/when one does hit...its game over for all of us...stop worrying.
Why do people that point out a danger make they worry warts? If we point out a valid risk 12 months ahead of time a concerted effort by all mankind could change the orbit just enough to make it miss Mars. The next time it will be in the area will be thousands of years in the future so plenty of time to take action then.
We need to begin harvesting asteroids around the Moon's orbit to use as slingshot rocks to toss at incoming asteroids. 20 feet up to 500 feet will do for any asteroid up to 2 miles wide. If bigger than that were out of luck and extinct!
Obviously if this thing hits Mars that's the end of the orbiters which will be buried and gone.
And huge chunks--similar to pieces we have found all over the Earth--of Mars could be tossed our way and some might well be BIG chunks over 100 feet or larger.
If so were in for a helluva ride soon.
I like how the poster that started it all with the Newt comment was given a free ride and everybody instead jumped on the second person. Biased any?
If the comet hits the side of Mars facing the Earth, then the ejecta would possibly come towards earth and provide us with a colorful meteor shower in a few years. Much the way the surface of water reacts to something dropping into it. Remember, Mars orbit is not exactly on our same solar orbital plane, nor is it's orbit the same rate as ours. If the comet hits the far side of Mars, then the ejecta would be away from the earth and likely not have any impact to us.
Its just that simple isn't it? If it hits Mars facing Earth then all those piece will come falling out of the sky....
Completely wrong. The ejecta would be in 360 degrees directions and fan out. So we couldn't avoid some of it even if it's not something that would hit us for dozens of years when it heads in a direction away from the Sun but is captured and swings back around.
So with tens of millions of NEW asteroids we have a huge tracking problem!!
Good job stability for NASA JPL labs!
It is possible that the Sun could blow up tomorrow and destroy the earth. Do journalists have time to copy junk science research of "could" or "may"? Why do they cover that? When the science says the likelihood is well over 50-50, you have story. Before that you could report that Obama is likely to be castrated before he dies!
it's not junk science. That comet exists. It may hit mars. It's sensationalist journalism. A comet that has only a slight chance of hitting mars (a very slight chance) is not exciting enough, they have to throw in all the garbage they saw about comet collisions on the history channel to make it a possible doomsday scenario to get people to click the headline.
This article will be archived soon.
The probability of the sun doing that is about 1 to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 The probability of the Comet hitting Mars is about 1 in 10,000 and rising. The latest trajectory has dropped the minimum from .00073 AU to .00037 AU (33,000 miles). Source: JPL labs.
When I try to imagine this scenario, all I can come up with is a version of Wall-E. Imagine those poor, little robotic explorers we've sent to Mars. Just rolling along, sampling a little dirt here and there, drilling a rock or two. Then, suddenly, the sky starts to light up. Photo sensors are going wild with the extra light shining on the surface. The cameras look up to focus on the new, bright light of the impending comet crash heading straight for the rover. The ground begins to shake, seismographs going wild, all while continuing to send back gigabytes of data to Earth. One final data burst to NASA. The last data stream (obviously an EM pulse error) being, "Gulp!"
Hubble soon, in less than 18 months, might get to survey the most stupendous cosmic collision in our Solar System in millions of years. A comet named C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), about 30 MILES wide--or 6 times wider and a volume of nearly 30 TIMES the volume of the dinosaur killer that hit Earth 65 million years ago will apparently come within 67,000 miles of Mars.
And not only is it BIG it is traveling at an astounding 126,000 mph !!
And because the orbit is not yet known with enough precision to rule out a collision (but we should know within 6 months) it could potentially hit Mars and throw up enough debris out of orbit to create a swarm of Mars meteors to quite literally fry our atmosphere if were in the cross hairs.
That is a scary thought just like in the movies.
It's so big that if it hits it would create a crater over 1000 miles across--and bury all the orbiters that NASA currently has on Mars under 5 feet of dust, and potentially crack the crust and create a massive volcano like the Olympus Mons volcano.
To put the size of this in perspective--it would be equivalent to 2 x 10 x10 power megatons of nuclear bombs which is 20,000,000,000 (20 billion) megatons which is astounding.
If this hit the Moon instead (ours) it might even could disintegrate it and break it up due to the massive speed it's traveling at and the Moon's own speed combined with it (over 200,000 mph collision). Good think it's not on a collision course with either Earth or it's Moon.
But cosmic debris from a Mars impact could be very very very worrisome and spark an extinction event on the Earth.
Doomsayers get ready!