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Chris Smith / NASA file
An artist's conception shows a comet streaking through Martian skies.
By Nancy Atkinson
Universe Today
There is an outside chance that a newly discovered comet might be on a collision course with Mars. Astronomers are still determining the trajectory of the comet, named C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), but at the very least, it is going to come fairly close to the Red Planet in October of 2014.
"Even if it doesn’t impact, it will look pretty good from Earth, and spectacular from Mars, probably a magnitude -4 comet as seen from Mars' surface," Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave wrote.
The comet was discovered in the beginning of 2013 by comet-hunter Robert McNaught at the Siding Spring Observatory in New South Wales, Australia. According to a discussion on the IceInSpace amateur astronomy forum, when the discovery was initially made, astronomers at the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona looked back over their observations to find "pre-recovery" images of the comet dating back to Dec. 8, 2012. These observations placed the orbital trajectory of comet C/2013 A1 right through Mars orbit on Oct. 19, 2014.
However, after 74 days of observations, comet specialist Leonid Elenin notes that current calculations put the closest approach of the comet at a distance of 67,853 miles (109,200 kilometers), or 0.00073 AU from Mars in October 2014. That close pass has many wondering if any of the Mars orbiters might be able to acquire high-resolution images of the comet as it passes by.
But as Ian O’Neill from Discovery Space points out, since the comet has only been observed for 74 days (so far), so it’s difficult for astronomers to forecast precisely where the comet will be 20 months from now. "Comet C/2013 A1 may fly past at a very safe distance of 0.008 AU (650,000 miles)," O'Neill wrote, "but to the other extreme, its orbital pass could put Mars directly in its path. At time of Mars close approach (or impact), the comet will be barreling along at a breakneck speed of 35 miles per second (126,000 miles per hour)."
Elenin said that since C/2013 A1 is a hyperbolic comet and moves in a retrograde orbit, its velocity with respect to the planet will be very high, approximately 56 kilometers per second (126,000 mph). "With the current estimate of the absolute magnitude of the nucleus M2 = 10.3, which might indicate the diameter up to 50 kilometers [30 miles], the energy of impact might reach the equivalent of staggering 2×10^10 megatons!"
While the massive Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 (9.3 miles or 15 kilometers in diameter) that crashed into Jupiter in 1994 was spectacular as seen from Earth orbit by the Hubble Space Telescope, the sight of C/2013 A1 slamming into Mars would be off the charts.
Astronomers are certainly keeping an eye on this comet, and they will refine their measurements as more data comes in. You can see the orbital parameters available so far at JPL’s Solar System Dynamics website.
More about comets:
- Comet PanSTARRS warms up for the spotlight
- NASA probe tracks 'Comet of the Century'
- Comet spectaculars and other sky highlights for 2013
This report originally appeared on the Universe Today website as "Is a Comet on a Collision Course With Mars?" Copyright 2013 Universe Today. Reprinted with permission.
Leave a Comment:
If a comet that size impacts Mars, there will be no use sending any manned missions to Mars for about 100 years afterwards. Can we get Newt Gingrich up there before the comet hits?
If a comet this sizes hits Mars at 126,000 mph there is a good chance that Mars missions will be to the asteroid remnants.
I was watching a program about comets a couple of nights ago and was expecting them to reassure us that the chances are very slim to none that one will hit earth any time soon. I was very wrong. They said our solar system goes through the galactic plane every thirty million years or so. A lot of stars reside in this galactic plane. If one comes close to our solar system its gravitation field jostles comets out of their safe zone at the edges of our solar system and sends them on a new trajectory. Some of these are sent into the inner solar system thus raising their chances of striking earth. There are literally trillions of comets available for target practice. There is evidence that a major collision occurs with earth about every thirty million years in conjunction with this scheduled trip through the star congested area. It takes a million or so years for a comet that is jostled to make it into the region of our solar system where we reside. Then this is what surprised me. I expected them to say we are 10 or 20 million years from going through this area again. Nope. What they said is that we went through the densest part of the galactic plane about a million years ago and that the jostled comets would be expected to get to us about f - - - - - g now. Yes, OH CHIT! No wonder we are scrambling to try and figure out what to do. Of course the chances are still slim that one will hit earth in our lifetime, but the chances are higher now than they would normally be. And all it takes is one to ruin your whole day. Someone pass that funny thing over here please.
When they talk about a million years or so they're talking about give or take a few thousand years. The chances of asteroids jostled a million years ago impacting even in our grand childrens life time remote. In any given year there's probably a 1 in 1000 chance of one hitting.
backtobasics,
It would do this country a favor if they sent obama, pelosi and dirty harry instead. Gingrich is not holding any office at this time .
We'll send up the criminals, Bush and Cheney to Mars. Bush can declare WAR on it and Cheney can shoot it with his shot gun.
Ok, enough political hate. It has nothing to do with this. Don't you all ever get tired of it?
Anyways, if a Comet that size did hit Mars a couple things would happen. First, there would be a huge explosion on the main impact zone, rain of fireballs all over the globe from particles burning up in the atmosphere, etc. (Think Russia's recent ordeal times a lot) Then, a huge dust cloud that would block out the sun for awhile. It would probably be years for an impact of that magnitude.
On Earth, it would be a mass extinction that threatened all life, as many organisms at the bottom of the food chain like plankton, plants, algae, bacteria, etc. get there energy from sunlight and would no longer be able to. Even those who survived the initial impact would soon be starved to death. The resulting chain reaction, again, would be a mass extinction and would threaten us humans as well. However, there is no life on Mars's surface that we know of. Any life there may have been is long gone. So neither the impact(s) nor the dust cloud would cause a Mass extinction on Mars because there is nothing to extinct.
However, it would certainly make Mars missions problematic. The curiosity mission NASA is running would either be ruined completely, or have to be put on hold until the dust cloud that would block out the atmosphere clears. That would take years. Remember, they build the rovers to run only during the day because they run on Solar power. Even if they could get a single through the massive could of dust and debris, any rovers that survived the initial impact would have nothing to run on. We would likely have to wait until the dust cloud lifted before trying any more Mars missions on the planet's surface, whether they involve live people or even just more simple Rovers.
While the comet hit would be devastating for Mars in the short term. Keep in mind virtually all of our water came from comet impacts. So this would be no exception to Mars. Added water resources as well as a slight uptick in the atmospheric pressure would be a good thing long term for humans. If we ever get off this planet. Which we should as it is clear from a historical perspective that keeping all of our eggs in one basket is not such a good idea.
godoffate... you forgot that the curiosity rover is not solar powered.. it has a rtg (nuke) powersupply
The Winds produced from a destructer Impact would produce winds (er I was thinking in an atmosphere like earth when I first wrote this line... not too sure about Mars with its thin atmosphere but there could be winds maybe) that would probably blow any rover away. If this were to hit here on earth it would be all over for the Human Race.
@ bushwacker-1303238,
Good catch. My mistake. I thought they used solar power to charge it, but I was mixing it up with the last one. Thanks for correcting that. Still, I don't know that they could get a single through the thick dust cloud to control it.
I'm am not an astronomer but, if this thing directly impacts Mars and say it breaks up or something, I wonder if it will impact Earths orbit around the Sun.
If it does, the Doomsday Preppers are not as crazy as I thought after all...
Each planet in our solar system makes up our chemistry of where why and how we are today and if interrupted, I'm not sure if anyone would be able to predict what would happen...
Well, this is a good way to find out if comets are the bringers of water to planets. New habitable planet?
A comet of that size hitting Mars at the velocity they are talking about could potentially alter the orbit of Mars around the Sun. It would not be a huge change, but even a minor change could have significant implications for the solar system. It is also possible that a combination of the water brought to the planet by the comet and the massive energy release from the impact could result in the formation of new life on Mars. It could also result in significant changes to the atmosphere of the planet. It would be an amazing thing to be able to study the effects of an impact of this magnitude on a rocky planet. It sounds like the chances of an impact are slim but hard to predict right now, so we will just have to wait for them to get longer tracking data in order to refine the orbital projections for the comet. At a minimum, this should be a close fly-by and that should allow at least one of the rovers we have on Mars to get good up close, detailed pictures of the comet. This alone could really help us better understand the make-up of the comet and provides a great opportunity for scientific study.
The operative word is it "may" hit Mars. If it were to hit earth with a diameter of 50 kilometrs (30 miles) I suspect we would have a short time to get our affairs in order. It would likely be an extinction event. The message here is don't take life for granted. Imagine the chaos on earth if something a year or so away were announced.
With all the craft on the surface and orbiting Mars this will indeed be a closely observed event and perhaps enable earth to do some prepping in case we are ever targeted.
Hmmm a narrow chance of hitting Mars- could miss and head towards us!
This can give us something else to be distracted by on our list of non-worries so we can avoid thinking about the national debt and other real matters 'impacting' us.
Guess i'll start building that runway with the gazebo and beer cooler at the end. No need to try and run, might as well get a lounge chair, some beers and throw some steaks on.
It seems as if we're having more and more catastrophic events, not to mention the record breaking weather occurring that seems almost weekly.
Let's hope and pray the Good Lord isn't preparing us for something even worse.
Sounds like a great show, whether it hits Mars or not.
This might give us a shot at seeing 2 comets in 2 years.
A 30 mile wide comet is 5 times the size of the Chicxulube meteor that took out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. A rough calculation assuming a 45 degree impact angle, gives an impact equivalent to 24.43 Billion Megatons.
Profreedom, That's what TV, Movies and celebrities are for. They are collectively, the distraction industry. Look at the shiny thing.
Aside from creating a blast crater and kicking up a ton of dust that will take a year or more to settle, the comet will have no measurable affect on the orbit of Mars, nor is there any chance of Mars breaking apart. The size and mass of Mars is so great in comparison to the comet, it would be like slinging a bowling ball at a 10-story building.
The comet is almost 5 times larger than Mars' moon Phobos, and almost 10 times Deimos.
A major asteroid or comet hit on Mars,depending on the direction,velocity and area of the Martian surface involved could send debris towards Earth "earth orbit crossing?" resulting eventually in meteorite impacts here. Pieces of asteroid or even Mars itself.
Space is not the size of your backyard. Even if the close encounter with Mars changes the comet's trajectory, the odds of it deflecting the path to Earth are, shall I say it? Astronomical!
That's not a comet...it's the Annunaki mother ship! The gods have returned to purge most of us and enslave the rest...Flee, flee for your lives!
OH CHIT! ®¿®
The good news is that this will wipe out the Martian invasion force plotting the War of the Worlds.
The bad news is that some of our "Generation X" NASA scientists often forget to convert kilometers to miles, so this comet may be headed right for Times Square. Remember that "slam bam thank you ma'am" Mars landing a few years ago?
RAK RAK
What if it prompts them to move up the invasion date?
The real good news is that we still have 2 out of three branches of government working for us, and that ain't bad.
I'm still scared.
If it was coming at us on Earth, we'd be TOAST! There's not a DAMN thing we could do about it, even with ten years notice.
But think of all the problems it would solve: Global Warming, Sequestration, Illegal Aliens, Drugs, those pesky alimony payments to my ex, retirement - you name it!
This could be a blessing and create a mindset which could bring humans closer together.
I suggest building two Saturn 5 sized rockets, each equipped with 100megaton warheads for the possibility an extinction event comet or asteroid is headed for earth. The explosion may not destroy the C/A but it could fragment it enough to avoid a super sized blow which we could not recover from. As this was just discovered within the past year and it will only amount to two years before a close pass/hit on Mars then we should start preparations immediately. I'm certain financial bickering would cease once its known we are all in the same boat. As many have said...its not a question of if but when so lets be prepared.
Blackbird, you've been watching too many sci-fi movies.
But I'm curious - where did you come up with two 100 Mt warheads? Did you simply pull that number out of your butt?
No Gumps. I believe that could be the largest sized warhead capable of being lofted. Just curious....why do you think this idea is so stupid. Have you read any periodicals where such an attempt might be foolhardy? I am not taking this from a Bruce Willis movie. It seems like a possible thing to do and even if it didn't work it would at least give mankind some assurance that at least we tried something. Please comment why it wouldn't work and please spare me the explanation that it might cause even greater chaos if it splintered.
Lastly I am curious why only MSNBC is reporting this. No other news source including JPL and Physics forums have mentioned it. Either MSNBC is ahead of the curve or its sensationalism.
You took the words right out of my mouth! :)
And on what basis do you have for believing this? Higher yield bombs are possible, but because more of the blast would simply escape the atmosphere there was no incentive for building bigger bombs.
What makes you think that simply lofting a nuclear warhead or two will destroy in incoming object the size of this comet? Why give mankind "assurance" in a non-solution?
Uh, how about these:
http://science.slashdot.org/story/13/02/25/1845252/comet-c2013-a1-may-hit-mars-in-2014
http://news.discovery.com/space/astronomy/could-a-comet-hit-mars-in-2014-130225.htm
http://astroblogger.blogspot.com/2013/02/update-on-comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring.html?showComment=1362005628124
http://www.universetoday.com/100298/is-a-comet-on-a-collision-course-with-mars/
http://phys.org/news/2013-02-comet-collision-mars.html
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/25/comet-c2013-a1-siding-spring-a-possible-collision-with-mars/
Just because it wasn't reported on Fox News doesn't necessarily make it sensationalism.
The scariest part is they just found this comet and if it hits Mars it would have had only 2 years warning. This comet hitting Earth would be "End Of Days". Hitting at that speed and that size would mostly probably end ALL life. So if we find one and have 2-3 years warning I doubt there is much we could do about it. Happy we are getting more satellites up watching for such trouble.
So, if they don't know whether it is going to hit mars or miss it by half a million miles, how can they be absolutely sure that Mars's gravity, or even slight contact with the outer fringes of the atmosphere isn't going to sling-shot it into the earth? It seems to me that there would be a wide cone of possible trajectories after it's encounter with mars.
>dan42day: So, if they don't know whether it is going to hit mars or miss it by half a million miles...
Well, this will become more precise as they observe it's exact path and speed for longer. However, another point of view of any near-miss is not only to consider the amount of distance, but also to consider the amount of time that the objects miss each other.
For example, if you were blindfolded and walked randomly across a highway, and you were then told that the closest car missed you by 100' - that sounds pretty safe. I mean, 100 feet away isn't any real danger, so no big deal, right? Except that also means you were about 1.1 seconds away from death. Only 1.1 seconds from being a bug-splat sounds pretty serious, yet 100' sounds pretty safe.
So, we sometimes hear that these objects end up missing by 10,000 miles, but that might be only 2 minutes plus/minus from planetary destruction.
Anyone remember the dinosaurs? Exactly. It'd be some kind of wild party for us at the end, though.
Of course, since the course isn't known, how do we know that the comet isn't already on path to hit us in a few years? Maybe Mars will deflect it enough to save us?
Space is BIG. The odds that an encounter with Mars will cause any particular comet to be in the exact place at the exact time to endanger the earth are remote. Until we've got more information, we've got other things to worry about.
An impact is possible because two bodies orbits intersect at the same time. Change the timing enough and there is no impact. Since we can't slow down or speed up the Earth, perhaps we could slow down the comet enough so that two to three years later it arrives at that intersection 15 or 20 minutes later, then impact avoided. Right? So, how much force would it take to slow it down enough so that it misses? I'm going to go and do some calculations (using what we know of this comet) now to see if it is even realistic.
30 miles in diameter at 126000 mph?
That's an ELE (extinction level event) were it to hit the earth! Wow.
I wonder - if it did hit Mars, well, so much for exploration. Mars would come to us in the form of many meteorites ejected from the blast - probably for decades.
Wow.
On the other hand, would make a sample return mission simple enough, eh?
we've all seen 'deep impact' bro.
I would also expect, but it wasn't mentioned in the article, where will some (or a lot) of the ejected material thrown into space go? A thirty mile in diameter object hitting a planet (without as much atmosphere as Earth has to slow it down or burn some off) at 126,000mph would most certainly create a large amount of potential debris bound, possibly, for Earth........It will certainly be spectacular if it does hit Mars.
provided you aren't a Martian.
Sure it will be spectacular for any Martian. That is, until the pressure wave from the impact tears their little green or purple bodies apart..........that part won't be so much fun.
bro - I assume nothing, particularly clever responses.
If that comet hits Mars, depending on the vector of the planet with earth, it might be a little hairy for us.......
Hmm should we start making our looting lists yet?
I want a sports car, a speed boat, and a hula hoop...
Looting list? Wouldn't matter much. I'm not a physicist or astronomer, but a comet that large, hitting at that speed could be enough to throw Mars out of its current orbit, maybe even bust a chunk of the planet off into a huge, Earthbound asteroid???
I don't know about looting, but you can bet gas prices will go up if this comet hits Mars.
BillyBob...
you think a comet thats 30 miles across is going to knock a planet out off its orbit?
get real.
You are right billy-bob you certainly are no physicist
And only a 20 billion Megatons blast. The crater would not only be massive but the dirt, dust it would throw up into the atmosphere would last for decades, centuries, can anyone guess? I would have a suspicion that the two rovers would be destroyed and the orbiters could be damaged beyond repair and lose communications with Earth. There would be no reason to go back to Mars for the foreseeable future. From what I have heard the Shoemaker-Levy left explosions a 1,000 miles high and marks as big as Earth. This one is bigger and faster and is a born planet killer. Not good not one bit.
Little to no atmosphere on Mars, so everything would go right into space. Be a helluva show though!
Some of it would fall Sunward (into our orbit). -joe
Shoemaker-leevy was a very small comet also. This one could be up to 50 moles across. Yikes!
Atmosphere or not, any debris still has to reach escape velocity or it will fall back to the planet.
Just how wide is a "Mole"?
Jessiegirl - Shoemaker-Levy9 was of similar size, it was torn apart into many smaller pieces though by Jupiter's gravity so that no single piece that impacted was larger than 1-2 miles in diameter.
Jimbo:
Reading comprehension is fun. The above text is the second to last paragraph in the article you are commenting on. It seems the new comet is more than 3 times as big as Shoemaker-Levy before it was broken up by Jupiter's gravity.
As far as frequency, we just had a 15 meter, 10,000 ton meteorite explode over Russia last week. There was another large airburst over the Pacific near Indonesia about 4 years ago. Then, of course, there was the Tunguska event where a 100 meter wide comet airburst about 5 miles above ground 105 years ago, in 1908, flattening 820,000 square miles of forest. The meteor that exploded last week over Russia airburst higher than 15 miles above the ground, where the air is definitely thinner.
Schoolyard -
It's 6.02 x 10^23 attometers.
asteroids and comets are not the same thing.
You forgot the ones in Florida the next day steve
Stay Posted.
Impact by this comet would cause a mag 12+ on mars and a crater ~900 km in diameter. Much of the ejecta would have velocities close to or exceeding escape velocity. We would expect to see a debris ring form around mars. The ring would interact with Phobos and Deimos and could very likely cause them to come crashing down onto the planet. This could be a seriously major event.
Good thing it is an impact for mars and not the moon, as that impact would be almost as devastating to earth as a direct hit, as the debris field created by a lunar impact would act as a solar umbrella.
I have already proposed guiding an asteroid into collision with Luna as a possible solution to global warming here on Earth. We could potentially use nuclear warheads to do this. - RC
Well lets keep this in the public's view as best as we can. The planet that you save should be your own. -joe
If there is any life on Mars, this will probably be an Extinction Level Event (E.L.E.), but at the same time is should dramatically open Mars up to future mining, at least once the Martian dust finally settles down. It should also add significant water to Mars, while also potentially sending a shower of Martian meteors back here to Earth. Maybe this was how Earth was originally seeded with life many eons ago? (This could also lead to a super volcano on Mars, too? This would certainly be an interesting warning to us back here on Earth!) - RC
(I think we also need to investigate one other possibility here, and that is whether the gravity field of Mars could send this massive comet on a collision course with Earth (even if only eventually). In other words, we may need an Earth defense system sooner than we thought! Please take heed!) - RC
(The asteroid which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs was only 6 miles in diameter. This massive comet is potentially 30 MILES IN DIAMETER !!!)
(If this massive comet is eventually going to hit us, we had better start chewing it up with nuclear warheads as soon as we can. It might take our full armament here on Earth to eventually do this, but if this is a real danger then we really have no other choice in the end.) - RC
(In fact, we might want to guide it into collision with Mars, if only to keep it from eventually hitting the Earth! Just one of many possibilities, since we can't depend on Jupiter to shield us from all of these comets. Please, let's get crunching these numbers FAST!) - RC
(Maybe we should get HST turned on this thing ASAP ??!!! We really need to start making detailed assessments NOW!) - RC
(Sorry, recent events have me just a little bit on edge, know what I mean?) - RC
((The energy of the colossal underground shock wave would probably destroy any life underground on Mars, too, but that is far better than destroying ALL LIFE here on Earth !!! RIGHT ???) - RC
Put the crack pipe down Rick_Carter
Thats funny
Rick, you're talking to yourself again.
What actually worries me the most is a glancing blow to Mars which in turn could "buckshot" the Earth. (Yes, unfortunately, I have also been "talking to myself" about a number of other threats down through the years.) Now I'm finished, ya'll, bye, bye! ) - RC
@Rick_Carter,
"Maybe we should get HST turned on this thing ASAP ??!!! "
HST ?????
Ooooh I get it the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) is a consumption tax in Canada.
So you want us to Tax it to death ;) That's the spirit...............Nice Job and Keep Up the Good Work!!!
Regards,
Brandon
@Rick_Carter,
Actually I know that you meant the Hubble. I just couldn't resist :)
BTW- I for one enjoy your posts. Thanks for your time.
Brandon
I think that for a given volume,a comet head/nucleus is less dense (has less matter) than an asteroid?
So a comet of a given head diameter should carry less momentum and destructive kinetic energy than an asteroid of the same diameter? (Assuming the same striking velocity)
Rick_Carter: Mining on Mars? For use here? How much do you think it would cost to haul something back to Earth? Even if you ignore the cost of extracting it and refining it on Mars, it would be prohibitively expensive. Gold is less than $2000 an ounce.
For use on Mars? It'll be a long time before mining on Mars for uses on Mars will be practical. You'd have to set up a colony and industry first and what's the point? That will be a long time off if ever (no magnetic field to speak of for protection from radiation so you'd have to colonize underground).
Joe, large nuclear powered spacecraft make mining anywhere in the solar system cost effective. In case you forgot, humans now know how to create magnetic fields. We can live on the surface under locally generated shields.
Uh, nuclear powered spacecraft? Have you seen any of those lately?
Not lately, but the defense department had small working prototypes they actually test fired in the late sixties and early 70's until the Soviets said they would consider any such ship in outer space a violation of our nuclear treaties. The technology is there. We could start building them tomorrow if not for certain treaties (which are obsolete and should be nullified). By using magnetic induction to super-heat hydrogen you get 15,000 times as much thrust for the same amount of fuel as you do with chemical reactions, and you don't need oxygen, just hydrogen, so you can carry 33% more fuel in the same space. A nuclear rocket could accelerate at one gravity (artificial gravity) half way to Mars then flip around 180 degrees and decelerate at one g to Mars orbit in two to four weeks.
There's some evidence that the Eocene-Oligocene mass extinction 33-35 million years ago was connected to a cometary shower lasting 2-3 million years as the Oort cloud was disrupted. Several big craters are dated to this time.
(Yes, it would be likely that this massive comet would break up upon passing close to Mars, and indeed could lead to a future comet shower which potentially impacts Earth. God bless you, and I sincerely thank you (from the bottom of my heart) for pointing out this potential danger to mankind here on Earth !!! Keep in mind that this comet is potentially 30 times as massive as the asteroid which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, and it is traveling at (approx.) twice the speed (inertia = square of any speed increase) as well, so this comet potentially has 120 times the energy potential as the asteroid which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. I really DON'T THINK that we should take this potential threat to our world lying down!) - RC
(Pardon me for getting "up in arms", but I have been getting just a little bit perturbed with Mother Nature lately, as I am sure she is getting perturbed by us.) - RC
(Keep in mind that Jupiter can potentially create a massive comet shower which eventually impacts Earth as well, if one of these massive comets from the Oort Cloud passes close to the massive planet of Jupiter.) - RC
Hardly. The fact of the matter is, Jupiter has actually acted as a sort of vacuum cleaner, sweeping up lots of meteors - many that might have otherwise hit us.
Even if it hits mars we might as well bend over and kiss our asses good by! 30miles in diameter at 123,000 mph. WOW that will be awesome. and very very bad, way to close for comfort!
I wonder what people would do if they thought all life on earth would certainly be wiped out in a couple of years.
Actually, there was a movie made about that subject. It was called Melancholia. I don't think many people saw it though. Too depressing.
Get the white house on the phone. we need to ban comets right now!
30 miles in diameter? That could blow the atmosphere off Mars!
This is unpleasant. If it does hit Mars, we could end up having chunks of Mars hitting US.
Remember Mars is smaller than Earth, A 30 mile wide comet with that amount of speed will either split Mars in two or it will change the shape of mars for ever, And yes John the earth will be hammered if you like to watch shooting stars there will be thousands every hour to watch.............
Oh, and you've done the math? Tell me - do you know what the mass of the comet is? Do you know it's composition? Even with some gross assumptions, what makes you think that it will change the shape of Mars?
Save a piece for me!!
An earlier post mentioned the periodic passage of our galaxy through the galactic plane causing disruptions in the Oort cloud, and I was wondering the same thing. I may have watched the same show... lol. But I also began to think about the "Nemesis" theory... the possible existence of a large planet, or maybe a brown dwarf that orbits at an extreme distance from our sun, which passes through the Oort cloud periodically. I don't know if we are hearing more about comets lately due to increased media coverage, or if there actually ARE more comets than usual showing up (or it could be just my imagination... lol), but if there actually is an increase in comets within the solar system, this could be just the proverbial "tip of the iceberg" if it was caused by an Oort cloud disruption. Scary and fascinating at the same time.
We are hearing more about comets recently because we have spent more time and technology looking for them. Much like people claiming the end of the world is coming because of all the natural disasters and violence occurring all over the world... but those disasters and violence have always been around, just now people make sure you hear about every single one.
Ya gotta remember Pluto just left the solar system (sort of) and is getting close to the inner oort cloud. Hmm? Man anything? Pluto, Charon , and the gates of Hell!!
I do not think there are more comets FedUp. I think our ability to detect these objects has increased substantially, so what you are seeing is a better recognition of what has always been there.
Good point :)
It's really okay folks....Life on earth was meant to be only a temporary thing for us human, death has assured us that fact...Eternal life is what I seek!!!
You're going to be sorely disappointed the day the grim reaper comes for you.
I read this in Omni Magazine several years ago.
Statistically, anyone who was under 50 years old in the year 2000 should live to an average age of 500 years. By which time they will probably have met with some sort of fatal accident.
Here's the bad news. Some of the people in that age bracket will be eligible to file for social security early, at age 62, next year. A comet might be the less costly alternative, in the long run.
Not gonna happen. I can assure you that nobody who is presetly under the age of 50 is going to live that long. And nobody would want to.
This big comet this size, traveling this fast will either knock Mars from its orbit or there be no Mars at all..
seriously, no. Do the math. Mars is something like half the size of Earth, say roughly 12,000 miles in diameter. You're talking about a 30 mile diameter comet. The comet is .0025% the size of Mars. I grant you it would probably suck to be on the surface of Mars assuming the comet did hit, but destroy the planet or move it from orbit? Not gonna happen.
eric:
The Earth is 8000 miles in diameter; ~25,000 in circumference.
Nah, it'll just increase Mars gravity a tiny bit.
Run into a semi head-on while on foot and see if you can move it if you need a practical experiment.
It is also likely to bring a lot of water to Mars. They don't know what it's made of yet. It could be mostly ice.
If the comet does hit Mars it would change its direction which could impact other planets such as Earth or any other planet in our solar system which could mean disruption of orbits. An event like this could change our solar system in ways that may not be good...
Oh really? And you have done the math? Impressive!
Lots of history channel doomsday watchers show up on these boards. It's gonna be a good show whether it hits or not, sit back and grab the popcorn. You are more likely to be shot by your dog then be effected by this comet.
I understand that you want to criticize Richard's comment as over the top, but you just did the same in the opposite direction. Neither one of you have any basis for those statements.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/26/17107343-florida-man-shot-by-his-dog-police-say?lite
Found a recent story about a man being shot by his dog, could you find me a story about a man being killed by a comet? Those history channel doomsday shows talk in absolutes but do not tell you the odds of the scenarios they are describing are incalculably small.
That there is a recent story doesn't make your statement any more realistic. Richard's guess that this can create some sort of affect on the solar system or other planets is more realistic than you implying that nothing will ever go wrong. Doesn't matter what silly example you used, dog shooting, lottery wining, etc. The point is you can't say that nothing will go wrong, just as Richard can't say we are doomed.
Stop being silly.
Someone could see the comet, think the world is coming to an end and shoot your family for the fun of it, or crash a plane into the center of a city or whatever. Or maybe the guy delivering milk just decides to call in sick because of the comet's omen of doom, so you have no milk or cottage cheese. The comet could directly "impact" your life or indirectly, either way, it still impacts you.
But, as you say, it probably won't.
The comet could leave a trail of sugar molecules in our solar system and we will all get Diabetes.
there are multiple "could happens" but calculating the odds of those events actually occurring is not worth it. it's a waste of time because the chance this particular comet effects us in any other way besides some really cool pictures to look at and maybe some interesting data is near nil. Any human being with a dog is more likely to be shot by that dog then to be killed by a comet, that is not a ridiculous statement that is fact (at least 1 human was shot by their dog, I have never heard of a human being hit by a comet). Actually the only probability worth calculating is the probability it actually hits mars, and the data so far has that at a very small chance of occurring. The only ones who have to worry are the stupid and ignorant who get drawn into the sensationalized garbage like they now run on the history channel. We should be talking about the real scientific value this experience could bring us not the offshoot beyond minuscule chance of some sort of Armageddon scenario. 10 years ago we wouldn't even know this rock was coming.
I'm with Richard in watching what effect this has on the solar system, vs. Concerned Criminal watching out for shooting dogs.
Concerned, I could keep this up, but my point is that, since you have no evidence to the contrary, you are better off debating Richard in his statements with facts instead of making statements that are even more silly in an attempt to make fun. As time gets closer, and you see a report of some warning or precaution we have to take due to this comet, you will feel quite silly. No I don't think this is a panic scenario, but the topic should be discussed. If you feel that poking fun at Richard is the way to go, then I leave it to you. But don't mind my sarcasm then.
I'm not poking fun at richard, i'm poking fun at the people predicting horrendous events that are not going to happen. There will be no warning or safety percussion for this comet... because it's not even going to do anything, in all actuality it will probably not even hit mars. They are the ones without evidence. Looking at the actual math involved can dispel most of these doomsday scenarios... like mars being knocked into earth... IF (and that is a huge if) the comet actually hits mars it may indeed alter it's orbit... by about .01%. no where near enough to bring it into collision with earth. A 50 km wide rock moving at 56 km/s loses the momentum battle with a 4,000 km rock moving 25 km/s every time. it's called physics... actually more like basic Newtonian Mechanics. (That is assuming the same density, normally solid planets are more dense then comets so that works in favor of the argument even more)
TFNJ, Or it could be composed of alcohol molecules!!! Yay!!
These could be flying chunks of Crack or Meth. Just sayin.
Or Marshmallow Cream.
And turns into s'mores when it enters the atmosphere. Yes I see that.
TFNJ: s'mores...LOL!
This is the same group that said that most comets and asteroids they were tracking will come no closer than 50,000 miles to earth. And the very next week we had one at 17,500 and several chunks fell to earth in Russia.
30 miles wide? That impact would alter the orbit of Mars.
The impact would indeed be enormous. To put it into perspective, it would have the explosive punch of approximately 40 Tsar bombs (The Tsar bomb was the largest hydrogen bomb ever detonated, with a yield of about 57 megatons). When the Tsar bomb was detonated the seismic shock wave was detected after three complete revolutions around the Earth. And the bomb was detonated in the air.
Compared to the Krakatoa explosion of 1883, this comet impact would be an order of magnitude larger. The shock wave from the Krakatoa explosion was detected after going around the Earth seven times.
As big and devastating such an impact would be, I doubt that it would destroy Mars or send it careening off into a collision with Earth...
The average distance from Earth to Mars is about 100 million Miles. That is further then the Sun is to us. The Closest point is around 30 Plus million miles every 2 years. That is more then 100 times the distance to our moon. This comet being the size and speed would of course be a gigantic blast of 20 Billion Megatons and most likely throw rock, dust debris into the atmosphere. This would dust would continue over the planet for years if not decades or more. I don't believe it would change Mars rotation or orbit more then .01%. It certainly would not throw it's orbit into Earth or any other planets orbit. The explosion probably would throw some debris from the planet into space. Most would remain into some sort of orbit around Mars. That being said our rovers would be destroyed and render our orbiter useless. No more trips to Mars for the foreseeable future because there would be nothing to see but dust for a long long, long time. Let's hope it misses.
The average distance from Earth to Mars is about 100 million Miles. That is further then the Sun is to us. The Closest point is around 30 Plus million miles every 2 years. That is more then 100 times the distance to our moon. This comet being the size and speed would of course be a gigantic blast of 20 Billion Megatons and most likely throw rock, dust debris into the atmosphere. This would dust would continue over the planet for years if not decades or more. I don't believe it would change Mars rotation or orbit more then .01%. It certainly would not throw it's orbit into Earth or any other planets orbit. The explosion probably would throw some debris from the planet into space. Most would remain into some sort of orbit around Mars. That being said our rovers would be destroyed and render our orbiter useless. No more trips to Mars for the foreseeable future because there would be nothing to see but dust for a long long, long time. Let's hope it misses.
This comet was just discovered and in less than 2 years could slam into Mars. Which means that one could pop out of nowhere heading for us. We have no visible means to protect ourselves. Unless they are planning to send Bruce Willis I think we may be screwed.
It should be possible now for the NASA to calculate the time plus or minus a few days as to when the impact would occur (if it does) and then we can know the approximate distance separating Mars from Earth at that time.
Mars is far away now-sort of near the other side of the Sun away from us. So sets and rises about the same time as the Sun and seeing it is hard because it is mostly in the sky during the daylight hours as well as being dim. Still an evening object as of late Feb. 2013 but getting involved in evening twilight while setting?
The closer it gets, the more measurements they take, the more accurate their predictions will get.
Watch for politicians buying lots of Ensure.
maybe we'll get lucky and it'll land on San Francisco. Right in Pelosi's ear hole. Las Vegas will be beach front property.
Moderation - if it hit SanFran, Vegas probably wouldn't exist anymore. You might have some nice beachfront property in Albuquerque though.
Assuming you want SanFran gone and Vegas still around, you want it to have a sea impact about 50-100 miles off the coast from SanFran.
kid, it's big enough and fast enough, that if it hit 100 miles off the coast of S.F., Vegas would be shockwaved, debris blasted, flamed, steamed and tsunamied. I would try the Indian Ocean.
It's going to look amazing... as it comes down crashing on you.
need to go to krogers and get me some more beer and cigs for the big show.
Nah, the crash will kill all the refrigerators. Stock up on Whiskey, Rum and Vodka.