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NASA
The Hawaiian Islands, seen from space, are the most vulnerable to uneven global sea level rise due to melting glaciers and ice sheets.
Melting ice in Greenland, Antarctica and elsewhere will push up seas unevenly around the world, according to a new study that finds some of the highest waters will inundate Honolulu, Hawaii.
At the poles, sea levels will actually fall because of the way sea, land and ice interact. For example, the sheer mass of water held in ice in Greenland and Antarctica generates a gravitational field that pulls in the surrounding water. As ice there melts, the gravitational pull weakens and the water is redistributed.
In addition, the melting ice on Antarctica and Greenland will lighten the load on the land beneath it, allowing the land to rebound up and the seafloor to drop a corresponding amount.
"Meaning that as the seafloor deepens, there is another component of sea-level fall, ironically, around these piles of ice," Charles Fletcher, a geologist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, explained to NBC News.
Fletcher was not involved in the new study but is familiar with its findings, particularly the vulnerabilities of Hawaii — and, more broadly, tropical islands in the Pacific Ocean — to global sea-level rise.
Modelling glacier wastage
The research was co-led by Giorgio Spada, a professor of Earth physics at the University of Urbino in Italy. It is "the first study to examine a regional pattern of sea-level changes using sophisticated model predictions of the wastage of glaciers and ice sheets over the next century," he told NBC News via email.
He and colleagues used the model to investigate sea level under two future scenarios of sea-level rise: a mid-range, likely-to-happen one and one closer to the upper limit of what’s plausible. Under both, maximum sea-level rise is expected at Honolulu, the researchers reported Feb. 13 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
In the mid-range scenario, worst-affected equatorial oceans could see as much as two feet of sea-level rise, when the fact that water expands as it warms is taken into account. Under the high end, the rate of sea-level change in Honolulu will exceed 0.3 inches a year during the second half of this century.
Sea-level rise will also be greater than average in Western Australia and throughout the atolls and islands in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In Europe, sea levels will rise, but will likely be lower than the global average given the continent’s proximity to Greenland and the dropping sea levels there.
Incomplete picture
But the picture is far from complete, cautioned Fletcher.
"What this paper and other models have not been able to do because, ultimately, it is too chaotic, is to predict what the winds will be doing," he explained.
For example, enhanced trade winds associated with a phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are pushing the Pacific Ocean surface westward. As a result, annual sea-level rise in Hawaii is currently about half the global average rate of about 0.1 inch a year, while in the western Pacific the rate is more than 0.3 inch a year.
This may, or may not, change with the next phase of the oscillation, noted Fletcher, whose own research recently highlighted how groundwater beneath land rises with sea levels and could breach the surface, causing severe flooding in places such as Honolulu.
"Overall, the (new) paper is one more twig in the bundle of concerns that low-lying coastal cities, and especially Pacific islands, are highly vulnerable to this problem of sea-level rise," he said, adding that "these Pacific islands have contributed almost nothing to the problem of global warming."
Related stories:
- ‘Horrible’ sea level rise of more than 3 feet plausible by 2100, experts say
- Sea level rose 60 percent faster than UN projections, study finds
- Antarctica, Greenland ice definitely melting into sea, and speeding up, experts warn
John Roach is a contributing writer for NBC News. To learn more about him, check out his website.
Leave a Comment:
Hawaii is a beautiful place. I hope it doesn't sure out that way.
If anyone gets a chance, can they please translate Greg's post into English for me? Thanks.
I meant to say "turn" instead of sure. Like you have never done that before. FO.
Where as I don't have scientific data to make a scientific assessment, I would caution that the Boston area along with Cape Cod, New York Metropolitan region, New Orleans and surrounding areas, Houston region, a damn good percentage of Florida as a whole, low-lying areas along the Potomac River and the Virginia Tidewater Basin region would all suffer the same consequences.
That said, the areas I listed are densely populated and will have not only major economic impact on the regions themselves but the overall national economy structure as we know it. Major displacement of the populace, food shortages/increase food demands, lack of clean water, degraded logistics involving lines of communication (actual roads, rail, and telecommunications), fuel depots and refineries, and taxing use of the secondary and tertiary lines of communication and infrastructure will severely impact the midWest and cause a ripple effect. One might think tent cities would be popping up all over the place to help those displaced, but it is not likely since this will be a gradual inundation of sea water and not all of a sudden. Still, the threat remains that people might not heed the warnings and either try to fight mother nature (losing strategy) or just don't have the financial means to uproot and relocate; who is going to buy a piece of land that is threatened to be underwater?
Possibly one slight improvement will be California's energy demands will level off when the East Coast's demand for energy will more than likely dip by a third. The problem is since most of America's populace reside on the East Coast, it will render the United States into a second-world, perhaps a third world nation. The economic boon of the United States the ebbed and flowed were by having a strong East Coast. If the nation can withstand the taxing use of the secondary and tertiary lines of communication, it could cause a national surge to improve those roads and rails to become the new primary lines of communication; spurring new growth in economically depressed regions of the country.
If my unscientific assessment comes true, there could be a rekindling of the Mississippi River cities as the 'new' landscape as the East Coast emerges. Austin and Dallas might turn into a new massive hub of prosperity to take over from Houston to New Orleans. Dare I say, Detroit and Chicago might actually have a renaissance of prosperity as well. Lastly, the grayed out, depressing state of Ohio might actually have life along with it's neighboring western portion of Pennsylvania and who can forget West Virginia?
I did caveat that I am not a scientist, right? This is just a WAG of mine...Cheers!
One prediction I heard is that one will want to be 75 miles inland from the coastline. But when exactly was not stated.
Incidentally, the first-, second-, and third-, are traditional terms respectively for the ccapitalist-, communist-, and underdeveloped-countries. The fourth world has been used to refer to the aboriginal peoples of the world, who may or may not see themselves as part of their surrounding nation, or that nation may or may not accept them as citizens.
There were many times in Earth's past when there was no snow or ice at the Poles.
That said, in recent years the rate of sea level rise has decreased. Antarctica is still gaining ice, studies show that Greenland ice is less sensitive to temperature change than was first thought and in several parts of the world glaciers are growing.
But what are facts compared to a good doom and gloom story?
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/02/new-paper-finds-antarctica-has-been.html
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/02/new-paper-finds-greenland-less.html
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=c920274f2a364603849bbb505&id=644383ac9c&e=f4e33fdd1e
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/12/noaa-2012-report-finds-sea-levels.html
http://notrickszone.com/2012/12/06/meteorologist-klaus-eckart-puls-sea-level-rise-has-slowed-34-over-the-last-decade/
I see you have a new blog now for your professional denialism. I hope you are getting paid well for your diligence.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Deal with it.
I love how those who disagree with another view point like to have it "collapsed by the community".
economykiller wrote a thoughtful piece, used sources for his information and was polite.
Just because you disagree is no reason for censorship.
He is a known poster of dis-information. Thoughtful?? More like misleading.
I am sure he feels thats what posted by others who differ from his view point is dis-information and misleading.
Just because you don't like his sources, 4 different ones, does not mean that they are totally without merit.
Again, censorship by those who disagree is wrong.
You can still read the misleading information. Just that it's collapsed for a reason that you see to ignore.
It is collapsed due to the intolerance of contrary views to what some believe.
Censorship.
You're completely and totally missing the boat here. This is a forum in which members of newsvine can comment on nbc news articles. It's not a branch of the government. You have to have some form of control over what people write on here. Even if you think some are unnecessary. You can alway join one that doesn't has some form of censorship.
Your first comment shows that you have zero tolerance or interest in differing view points, hence, shut them down, silence the opposition through any means.
Censorship.
As I have the ability to censor/silence you, I am now choosing to do so. You are just a closed minded individual who will not look at or listen to other view points.
Ignore is such a fabulous tool. bye-bye
Apparently you didn't read why he was collapsed. One person can't collapse a comment. Gee I guess more than one member has figured out EconomyKiller. As for ignore me good! FO and bye-bye.
Change is natural.
Humans should get used to it and go with the flow--that's what nature does best.
It's called evolution.
Mankind is so rigid in it's thinking. And that's dangerous.
Changes in climate are not Evolution. Need to learn what Evolution is.
Rigidity in thinking can include the inability to stop doing harmful things. And yes that is dangerous.
He wasn't saying climate change was evolution, he was saying nature goes with the flow (of change) and the process by which nature goes with the flow is evolving to survive in times of change.
Which isn't really the case, what really happens is change comes, kills a lot of things, peace comes, things that didn't die spread into newly opened lands, repopulate the planet, and divergently evolve over time (to fit the new ecosystem) all until the next great extinction comes.
I have a question of any physicist our there who can answer. If sea level rises more at the equator than the poles, is this going to have some very minor effect on the speed of earth's rotation? Much like an ice skater who can slow their spinning revolutions by stretching their arms out, and speed them up by bringing their arms to their side, will earth's spin slightly reduce in speed with the raising of the sea levels near the equator?
I am glad to see a story on a study that acknowledges the complexity of global warming and ocean levels. The crust and the mantle of the earth are more plastic than typically recognized. The ground in North America that was previously glaciated is still rebounding since the weight of all that ice is gone. Similarly if the ice on Greenland and Antarctica melts, that ground will rise. At the same time the ocean floor will sink. The net effect will, as the story reads, be much greater on places like Hawaii.
Florida and Louisiana will probably be hit worse than Hawaii in terms of total land lost (not percentage of land lost).
Seeing as how the Hawaiian Islands are volcanic though, I have to wonder, will the increased surface temperature of the earth increase the temperature in the mantle or somehow increase volcanic activity? (Thereby creating more Hawaiian land...)
The Hawaiian Islands are formed on a bed of loose crumbling volcanic rubble.
The ones that are not being actively created by a flowing volcano are continually crumbling into the sea. One day they will all disappear under the waves as older islands in the same volcanic chain have already done.
All without global warming,........... and there is nothing you can do about it.
Yes, and the Sun will eventually die and there's nothing you can do about that either, so I guess we should stop trying to keep it alive.
The oceans tear away at all coastlines not just islands. You seem to be missing the point here. The eventual demise of the islands by erosion is a natural process. AGW is not.
Actually the islands don't erode as fast as they sink - back into the mantle. Their sheer weight makes them disappear faster than erosion would...
LOL sheer weight. Some latest studies suggest that the islands are eroding faster not by the ocean but ground water. Sheer weight.... SF.
Since "these Pacific islands have contributed almost nothing to the problem of global", I think it appropriate to punish those areas that have. Detroit is one of guiltiest by virtue of it's central role in the automotive industry. Hence, by way of global justice, we should exchange the populations of Detroit and Honolulu.
- DadooS (needless to say, Detroit, MI)
What utter and total BS.
This is all made up to cover up the truth, that the near presence of Planet X IS what is causing the earth to heat up from the inside out. It is Planet X causing sinkholes, increased earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, melting glaciers, collapsing bridges, exploding buildings, you name it all due to Planet X/Nibiru.
Never heard of Planet X? You will soon enough becuase NASA is going to announce it is real and that it was covered up by a National Security Directive signed by Reagan. Yep, that is how long the cover up of Planet X has been ongoing because some elites did not want YOU to find out in time to save yourselves. In the meantime those elites are building underground bunkers (really bad idea, need to be above ground) and stocking up on everything including prescription medicines. Yep, it is their hoarding that caused shortages of certain medications.
Everything is about Planet X, folks, and soon you will also know what the elites have been keeping from you!
Anonymous, your first line seems to sum up your entire post. Thanks for the levity.
Anonymous, you're a total fruit. Break out the aluminum foil and make yourself a hat for protection, cupcake...
You're know better with the "sheer weight" BS. What a joke.