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Alister Doyle / Reuters file
Experts increasingly recognize that ice melting in Antarctica could push up sea levels dramatically higher in coming decades.
By John Roach, NBC News
Melting glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland may push up global sea levels more than 3 feet by the end of this century, according to a scientific poll of experts that brings a degree of clarity to a murky and controversial slice of climate science.
Such a rise in the seas would displace millions of people from low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, swamp atolls in the Pacific Ocean, cause dikes in Holland to fail, and cost coastal mega-cities from New York to Tokyo billions of dollars for construction of sea walls and other infrastructure to combat the tides.
"The consequences are horrible," Jonathan Bamber, a glaciologist at the University of Bristol and a co-author of the study published Jan. 6 in the journal Nature Climate Change, told NBC News.
Estimating how much sea levels will rise from ice sheet melting is one of the more challenging aspects of climate science. Some evidence suggests recent accelerated melting is related to changes in ocean and atmospheric temperature, though natural variability may play an important role.
In addition, glaciers respond to external forces such as warmer temperatures in different ways, even when they are located right next to each other. As a result, there is tremendous uncertainty in the scientific community over how the melting will affect sea levels over the next century.
Bamber and colleague Willy Aspinall attempted to find clarity in the chaos using a scientific polling technique common in fields such as predicting earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but until now not applied to climate science.
The pair sent 26 of the world's leading glaciologists a series of questions about the behavior of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. About half replied to the survey in 2010. The respondents were polled again in 2012 to assess the robustness of their answers.
Bamber said this type of approach is "a lot more than an opinion poll." The experts were handpicked to get a representative perspective of world leaders from the ice sheet modeling and observational fields. "We analyzed the results in a very systematic, rigorous, and statistically robust way," he added.
The median estimate from the experts is that the melting ice sheets will contribute 1 foot (29 centimeters) to sea level rise by the year 2100 with a 5 percent chance their contribution could exceed 2.8 feet (84 centimeters). When the effect of thermal expansion (water expands as it warms) is taken into account, the high-end estimate is more than 3 feet (1 meter).
The estimates are higher than the controversial figures in the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of up to 23 inches (59 centimeters) and higher than the unpublished estimates being prepared for the next IPCC report, said Bamber, who is a review editor for that document and has seen the estimates.
The discrepancy likely reflects added weight given to recent studies that indicate glacier melt has accelerated in recent years in Antarctica and Greenland, and that the West Antarctic ice sheet could partially collapse by the end of this century.
"The numbers we are getting out of our elicitation reflect the fact that the world leaders in this field are now cognizant of the fact that the ice sheets are quite responsive and, in particular, there is a potential for them to make a really quite dramatic contribution," Bamber said.
The greatest drama would be a more than 3-foot rise in sea levels from the combined effect of melting ice and thermal expansion, which the study indicates has a 1 in 20 chance of occurring.
How much of this drama can be attributed to human burning of fossil fuels, the study indicates, remains murky. “There is really no consensus amongst the experts we approached,” Bamber said. “That’s something that we in the scientific community need to address as a matter of urgency.”
John Roach is a contributing writer for NBC News Digital. To learn more about him, check out his website.
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We will live with global warming, or not, but most likely we will, for as long as we can, same as always.
How much of this drama can be attributed to human burning of fossil fuels, the study indicates, remains murky. “There is really no consensus amongst the experts we approached,” Bamber said. “That’s something that we in the scientific community need to address as a matter of urgency.” It is finally nice to see that someone has calmed down on the hysterial side to admit there might be another set of possibilities...natural, termal vents underwater, axis tilt, perhaps some things we will never be able to solve. Though I am concerned with the "26 handpicked scientists". Sounds like they can just mail in their "research/opinions" now and ask for some Solyndra, Fisker, etc kind of money to launder back thru the DNC for more grants later and the DNC can fill the campaign coffers instead of investing in infrastructure or actual, legitimate green energy possibilities thru tax breaks for legitimate companies....but most of those probably opposed Obamacare so that would never happen. They did not kiss the king's ring.
The problem with your idea is that ALL of those things have been looked at, among MANY others, and NONE of them have enough of a contributing factor to cause what's happenning. The ONLY logical explanation is that WE are the ones that are capable of manipulating the Earth's ecosystem on such a large and expanded time scale. NO OTHER creature has EVER had the 'know-how' to do such a thing. Period.
Read the headline: 'Horrible' sea level rise of more than 3 feet plausible by 2100, experts say'
Now read the article: The median estimate from the experts is that the melting ice sheets will contribute 1 foot (29 centimeters) to sea level rise by the year 2100 with a 5 percent chance their contribution could exceed 2.8 feet (84 centimeters). When the effect of thermal expansion (water expands as it warms) is taken into account, the high-end estimate is more than 3 feet (1 meter).
This is why I tend to distrust the hysteria about global warming. Yes, I think it exists and we need to do something about it. But too many articles like this one are phrased like the ads for diet plans: "You may lose as much as 10 pounds a week!!"
Janet -
it is a prediction based on the beat data available but I will say they were saying this in the 60s and while they were not very accurate on the when part there is no doubt on the if part. Weather forecast in the 60s were no where as accurate as it is today, the same applies to global warming.
As far as the scientists inability to say with any certainty if this is mostly a man made issue, they are just trying to be too careful ... for most part it is. There is no hysteria.
While I agree with your comments regarding distrust of inflamatory reporting my real information need (not provided by the NBC news report) is what is the impact of the 1 foot rise versus the worst case 3 foot rise.
Of course, if that information were given then how would the report gin up the readers :)
The word "Horrible" is probably why we are all here. If they had said significant, noticeable, noteworthy, or anything resembling these, we would have clicked on a different story.
Reaching a consensus in this country is getting harder all the time. Maybe we need to be more focused on a solution for that, instead of exploiting our differences. Unity and justice for all? Where is all this Dis-unity coming from? Hard times reveal a persons true character.
Our dependance of fossil fuels is to blame. The cost of this will be very steep. We allow oil companies to make huge profits but be sure they will not pay to protect cities or move populations. That cost gets shifted onto governments and taxpayers.
It is time to stop that now. The true cost of using fossil fuels is very high. Tax the hell out of them. Then those fuels will reflect a true cost. Sure the public is paying for it either way. But the high cost will reduce consumption dramatically. Use the income to find alternative sources of power now and some of it to prepare for the huge investments in dikes and sea walls that are sure to come.
We can be proactive about this. We can be smarter than we are now. But we all need to speak up and get our government to listen and to act.
It won't matter. People living in areas where it will flood will stay right where they are and wait for someone to pay them money.
We keep telling people to evacuate and they don't. Then their damn whining starts. You'd think they were vets.
Get the heck out and shut up....take responsibility for choosing, yes, choosing to live where you are. Build your own house back don't expect the government to re-build your stuff.
There is always the possibility that the greenhouse effect is just mistaken science and that pumping billions of tons of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere actually has no impact at all on the earth. We might also question that the Koch Bros. hired scientists as well as the IPCC could be wrong and the Koch Bros have been correct all along that their firms' emissions pose absolutely no problems. So, lets wait a while and take the chance before we do anything so risky as reducing our carbon footprint or get into rash programs like carbon trading.
Environmentalists and beach owners trying to keep the status quo is not the story of life.
By not allowing the changes to occur--your messing with evolution which strives on changes.
Remember from Jurassic Park--life will find a way. So let life alone and what ever happens happens.
By trying to PREVENT changes and keep sea levels the same your robbing some future creature of his life.
Actually turning this into a water world makes a lot of sense to me. Less humans, less war.
They been saying this since the 60's...Guess what, New York City is still above sea level and no sea level has risen yet, not even a half of inch..Dam! They smell Science pork barrel money.Sorry God is going to Burn the Earth this time..
And the world's going to end on 12/21/2012... Oh, wait --- that didn't happen! This "horrible sea-level rise" won't, either, because it's just more bull$hit to keep everybody afraid of the "global warming" bogeyman. Numbnuts...
But can you imagine how boring life would be without anything to be afraid of?
Did ANY scientist worth their weight in salt claim one bit the Earth would end this past December!?? NO. So just what in the hell does that have to do with what humans are doing and have been doing to this planet for the past 200 years? NOTHING.
seriously people global warming does exist to a point but while everyone is talking about it china is undergoing some of the coldest temperatures ever there nature changes just as humans do we have already been through a period of extreme warmth and humidity and another period of extreme cold (ice ages) NATURE CHanges all the time and we tend to help
I recommend people watch National Geographic channel, they cover the science regularly. And its indepth. Most of these predictions are based on whats happened before. They are not just wild predictions. Scientists are looking at where sea levels were back when all the ice was gone in the past, and the results are worrying.
The highest sea levels were 390 feet above where they are today. There is plenty of fossil evidence. Coral formations etc.
BTW, a 1 foot rise, means tides will rise significantly everwhere. 10 feet or more. The sea isnt a still pond. All that water moves.
I watched the same program. There has been a lot of land uprising as well. The sea level will rise due to warming of the earth. What is so strange is that few will take heed and do something to protect themselves. It's like watching a fish swimming in a cold water pot on a stove. Heat the water slowly, and the fish are oblivious until they die from overheating.
Oh right and by the 1990's the air was supposed to be so polluted we would have to live in domes. More junk science alarmism.
Time will prove who is right. In the mean time, enjoy the waterfront and beaches for they will be moving inland eventually. Breath the air in our cities while you can. I know one city's air, Los Angeles, that you can smell inside an airplane at 500 feet above the ground. The warning signs are there if you take the time to read them.
The air probably would be close to that point if it weren't for those 'crazy enviro-nazis' demanding clean air to breathe and clean water to drink all these years.
Read and heed. The fact is that oceans are rising. Don't wait until the waters are flowing through the streets (New York City, New Orleans, Florida coast, etc.) Sell that ocean front property before you loose your investment. Move to higher ground now. This time, Chicken Little is right. The sky is falling and the oceans are rising!
Just more clueless rhetoric from people that are being paid to come up with theories and hypotheses for get the government to spend money on things that cannot be altered.
Global warming - melting of the ice caps - all part of systemic changes that are part of the earth's history and will be part of its future. To forcast this to happen in 87 years is childish. within ten years they will postulate a new theory because they want to continue their funding by the u.s. govenment.
Much like an interpretation of the mayan calendar. You just don't have a clue. You cannot even predict what the gas price will be in three days or what the temperature will be tomorrow with any certainty. You expect anyone to believe that there is an 'expert' or team of 'experts' qualified enough to know how the earth functions and what it will do in reaction to anything that we have done or will do in the future. It is a 'butterfly effect'. What we do today to prevent such a tragedy may actually be the thing that triggers it. The smartest individuals on the planet cannot even get us to the moon with any more efficiency than what we had in the 50's and 60's - do you really think that they can predict the future . BS BS BS BS BS BS BS
Well hell!!! There ya go! All these stupid scientists going to school for 20 years and taking measurements all over the globe and conversing with other stupid scientists from other fields of science! When all we had to do was ask YOU for the answer!! Geeee! I am sooooo glad I read your post!! I'm going to go burn my degree right now and ask you for more qualified advise!! Now don't you go anywhere! I got LOTS of questions to ask you mister!
There are two flaws that immediately stand out to my tired old eyes. First only 50% of their questionaires came back the first time around, you would think that with such an important subject (said with sarcasm) that many more would have been returned. And secondly those receiving questionaires were "handpicked", now that is a red light signaling that all conclusions come to by these "researchers" are sure to be slanted to the inevitable conclusion that we are all going to drown. My two word comment to them "POPPY-COCK".
After Yellowstone erupts we will be thrust into an ice age. Better to get as much greenhouse gas and melt more icecap to get a jump on the process. It will even out and be nice at that point.
Won't if be exciting when Yellowstone erupts again? We don't have an active volcano tourist attraction on the U.S mainland. Maybe that will help improve our jobs in this country.
We've already had one natural disaster happen twice (Obama election). Not sure if we could handle another.
Well, as all of the "experts" apparently agree that "global warming" is a phenomenon caused by humans, (I don't know where man was during all the other glacial / inter-glacial periods, but we all know some will claim they were Bush's fault, while others will claim it was Obama) the very simple solution is to eradicate the human species from the face of the earth.
Of course this will occur eventually anyway, so lets "save the planet" and commit global suicide. Personally, I'll wait for the truly DEDICATED among us to lead the way. Once they've made their contribution, I suggest we do additional studies to see if all the hot air being spewed by those people aided in an appreciable manner to saving the planet.
Oh, and before I get blasted, which I know I will. This piece of space flotsam we inhabit and call planet Earth does not need saving. It has existed for billions of years before we crawled out of some primordial ooze and will continue to exist for billions of years after we become some dust on the surface.
In our arrogance at believing we are some form of special life, no one has considered the truth that our own ignorance has denied us the ability to even know the questions to ask that actually mean anything. Our "knowledge" base is, in the universe, less than a grain of sand on all the beaches and deserts of this planet.
How's THAT for some philosophical BS which can neither be proved nor disproved. Much like the current debate about climate change. It's not the first time it's happened and won't be the last.
The past weather changes that happened without man, happened over 10's of thousands of years. Not hundreds.
You know this as fact how? Were you there?
And how many 10's of thousands of years has our climate already been changing? Are we nearing the end of the cycle? Or the beginning of a new one?
What a STUPID ASS reply! Do you believe in jebus? If so then why? How do you know he was real? Were you there when he supposedly turned the water into wine?? You get where I'm going with this?? Of course you do.
Sea walls are not the answer.Having people and businesses relocate away from the coastline would be a step in the right direction.
Yeah, that's it! We'll just move close to 70% of the worlds population inland and away from the ocean!! DUUUHHH!!
Horrible! Call Chicken Little, I mean Al. Better call big bird too. Don't forget that every time Obama raises taxes or imposes some new regulations costly to business they move to China. China has no EPA and they can make all the green house gas they want. Thanks Obama!
Enjoyable 3 foot sea rise to be seen by end of century.
Ownership of beach front property changing by the year with extincion of beach ownership as the property becomes sea bottom or merely washes away in the next hurricane.
Extinction of the Beach House as Insurance will no longer cover insanity and stupidity.
Tourism industry exults as Miami Florida is renamed New Venice and prepares to import Gondolas to float the streets.
New marinas open as the Great Central Valley Inland Sea becomes a viable tourist destination in California.
There's a bright side to it, enjoy the changes!
There will be no rise. I am guessing of course but by 2050 more then a third of the world will get their water by de-salinization and massive pipelines will will be taking water from the oceans inland to keep lakes filled, support rivers, and supply fresh water to cities. Just a hypothesis but if you look at water needs today we are running out. Irrigation pumping, drought, consumption, and overpopulation, is drying up aquafers so the water will have to come from somewhere. I am no expert but we will have to do something to keep the salinity of the oceans stable and all that fresh water may change that causing other issues to the marine food chain.
And we'll be getting our food from replicators and enjoying Synthohol.
Better invest in Dilitium technology, it's the future!
maybe the extra water will wash away all the thugs < wishfull thinking >
Ya, those dinos burned a bunch of fossil fuels. Hey, if someone can make a buck off it, blame man, and tell all those earth scientists and paleo's digging whales out of Tennessee and Montana to shut up. T-Rex four wheelers roaming the earth... that was the ticket. Varrrrroooooom.
Hey, I am all for the 20 million dollar government research project that determined cow farts were to blame. Ah hell, blame Bush.
as in all ages of our human history, some will die, some will survive, some wars will start and end. humans will adapt.
How is this possible? There is not such thing as Global warming, Our Government says so!
They say there is but don't tell you that Obama and the Chinese are creating it. I think it's just a bunch of bull to make money. Look at how much Al has made of of climate freaks.
Yes the scientists are always correct in the 1970's they advised to begin preparing for another ice age when their grants to study that dried up then came global warming another round of big fat grants to study that. I'm not saying their wrong of right I'm saying you can't get a grant if you say everything is going to be fine predict the worst get your grant, buy the way are we still paying for a study on the effect of cattle flatulance on the ozone. Sounds like it's time to bring back the WPA and put the unemployed to work on these new sea walls we will be needing. New Orleans flooded and we built it right back below sea level we don't even learn from the tradgedys that actually happen do you expect a reaction to one being predicted in the future. Who knows we might get stuck by an astroid before then I'll bet there is someone with a grant to study that.